Virginia’s congressional map, unchanged after the state Supreme Court invalidated a 2026 redistricting referendum, keeps several districts competitive and sustains the tight distribution of probabilities around seven to nine Democratic seats. Incumbent Republicans in VA-1 and VA-2 face rematches against experienced challengers, while Democratic-held seats such as VA-7 remain under pressure from national midterm dynamics and voter turnout patterns. Recent primary results and early fundraising reports have produced only modest shifts in these battlegrounds, leaving the implied probabilities clustered because no single district has moved decisively toward either party. A sustained national environment favoring one side, stronger-than-expected performance by key candidates, or late-cycle developments in turnout could separate the leading outcomes of seven, eight, or nine seats before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8 32%
7 29%
9+ 24%
6 20%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<5
1%
5
2%
6
20%
7
29%
8
32%
9+
24%
8 32%
7 29%
9+ 24%
6 20%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<5
$137 Vol.
1%
5
$167 Vol.
2%
6
$1,016 Vol.
20%
7
$671 Vol.
29%
8
$457 Vol.
32%
9+
$291 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Virginia in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Virginia US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Virginia’s congressional map, unchanged after the state Supreme Court invalidated a 2026 redistricting referendum, keeps several districts competitive and sustains the tight distribution of probabilities around seven to nine Democratic seats. Incumbent Republicans in VA-1 and VA-2 face rematches against experienced challengers, while Democratic-held seats such as VA-7 remain under pressure from national midterm dynamics and voter turnout patterns. Recent primary results and early fundraising reports have produced only modest shifts in these battlegrounds, leaving the implied probabilities clustered because no single district has moved decisively toward either party. A sustained national environment favoring one side, stronger-than-expected performance by key candidates, or late-cycle developments in turnout could separate the leading outcomes of seven, eight, or nine seats before November.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Virginia in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Virginia US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Virginia US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ET
Volume
$2,740End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Virginia in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Virginia US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Virginia’s congressional map, unchanged after the state Supreme Court invalidated a 2026 redistricting referendum, keeps several districts competitive and sustains the tight distribution of probabilities around seven to nine Democratic seats. Incumbent Republicans in VA-1 and VA-2 face rematches against experienced challengers, while Democratic-held seats such as VA-7 remain under pressure from national midterm dynamics and voter turnout patterns. Recent primary results and early fundraising reports have produced only modest shifts in these battlegrounds, leaving the implied probabilities clustered because no single district has moved decisively toward either party. A sustained national environment favoring one side, stronger-than-expected performance by key candidates, or late-cycle developments in turnout could separate the leading outcomes of seven, eight, or nine seats before November.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Virginia in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Virginia US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Virginia US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,740End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Virginia’s congressional map, unchanged after the state Supreme Court invalidated a 2026 redistricting referendum, keeps several districts competitive and sustains the tight distribution of probabilities around seven to nine Democratic seats. Incumbent Republicans in VA-1 and VA-2 face rematches against experienced challengers, while Democratic-held seats such as VA-7 remain under pressure from national midterm dynamics and voter turnout patterns. Recent primary results and early fundraising reports have produced only modest shifts in these battlegrounds, leaving the implied probabilities clustered because no single district has moved decisively toward either party. A sustained national environment favoring one side, stronger-than-expected performance by key candidates, or late-cycle developments in turnout could separate the leading outcomes of seven, eight, or nine seats before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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