Florida's new congressional map, enacted in April 2026 after a special session called by Governor DeSantis, is the dominant factor shaping trader expectations for Democratic House seats in the November election. The redistricting is projected to produce a 24-4 Republican-Democratic split, sharply reducing the eight Democratic-held districts from the prior cycle. Several currently Democratic seats, including those represented by Darren Soto, Kathy Castor, and Jared Moskowitz, face altered boundaries that increase Republican performance. With primaries scheduled for August 18, limited competitive districts remain, and the national midterm environment offers Democrats little structural offset in the state. Traders assign the highest probability to seven seats, reflecting the map's constraints while allowing modest variance around a small number of Democratic strongholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7 27%
12+ 15%
4 13.1%
8 12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<4
4%
4
13%
5
9%
6
9%
7
27%
8
12%
9
10%
10
7%
11
8%
12+
15%
7 27%
12+ 15%
4 13.1%
8 12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<4
$107 Vol.
4%
4
$793 Vol.
13%
5
$305 Vol.
9%
6
$93 Vol.
9%
7
$153 Vol.
27%
8
$122 Vol.
12%
9
$98 Vol.
10%
10
$189 Vol.
7%
11
$120 Vol.
8%
12+
$81 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Florida's new congressional map, enacted in April 2026 after a special session called by Governor DeSantis, is the dominant factor shaping trader expectations for Democratic House seats in the November election. The redistricting is projected to produce a 24-4 Republican-Democratic split, sharply reducing the eight Democratic-held districts from the prior cycle. Several currently Democratic seats, including those represented by Darren Soto, Kathy Castor, and Jared Moskowitz, face altered boundaries that increase Republican performance. With primaries scheduled for August 18, limited competitive districts remain, and the national midterm environment offers Democrats little structural offset in the state. Traders assign the highest probability to seven seats, reflecting the map's constraints while allowing modest variance around a small number of Democratic strongholds.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Volume
$2,061End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Florida's new congressional map, enacted in April 2026 after a special session called by Governor DeSantis, is the dominant factor shaping trader expectations for Democratic House seats in the November election. The redistricting is projected to produce a 24-4 Republican-Democratic split, sharply reducing the eight Democratic-held districts from the prior cycle. Several currently Democratic seats, including those represented by Darren Soto, Kathy Castor, and Jared Moskowitz, face altered boundaries that increase Republican performance. With primaries scheduled for August 18, limited competitive districts remain, and the national midterm environment offers Democrats little structural offset in the state. Traders assign the highest probability to seven seats, reflecting the map's constraints while allowing modest variance around a small number of Democratic strongholds.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,061End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Florida's new congressional map, enacted in April 2026 after a special session called by Governor DeSantis, is the dominant factor shaping trader expectations for Democratic House seats in the November election. The redistricting is projected to produce a 24-4 Republican-Democratic split, sharply reducing the eight Democratic-held districts from the prior cycle. Several currently Democratic seats, including those represented by Darren Soto, Kathy Castor, and Jared Moskowitz, face altered boundaries that increase Republican performance. With primaries scheduled for August 18, limited competitive districts remain, and the national midterm environment offers Democrats little structural offset in the state. Traders assign the highest probability to seven seats, reflecting the map's constraints while allowing modest variance around a small number of Democratic strongholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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