New York’s 26 House districts feature a cluster of competitive races that shape trader expectations around 19–21 Democratic seats. Several Long Island and Hudson Valley seats remain closely contested, including NY-3, NY-4, NY-17, and NY-19, where recent fundraising, candidate recruitment, and national generic-ballot trends influence assessments. Court rulings directing a potential redraw of the Republican-held NY-11 district could alter its partisan lean before November, while June primaries produced notable shifts in New York City districts through retirements and progressive challenges. These localized developments, alongside the state’s closed primary system and ongoing campaign dynamics in swing districts, underpin the current market consensus on modest net changes from the existing 19–7 split.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated20 39%
19 26%
21+ 18%
18 9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<16
4%
16
5%
17
6%
18
9%
19
26%
20
39%
21+
18%
20 39%
19 26%
21+ 18%
18 9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<16
$97 Vol.
4%
16
$60 Vol.
5%
17
$325 Vol.
6%
18
$40 Vol.
9%
19
$482 Vol.
26%
20
$408 Vol.
39%
21+
$181 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.New York’s 26 House districts feature a cluster of competitive races that shape trader expectations around 19–21 Democratic seats. Several Long Island and Hudson Valley seats remain closely contested, including NY-3, NY-4, NY-17, and NY-19, where recent fundraising, candidate recruitment, and national generic-ballot trends influence assessments. Court rulings directing a potential redraw of the Republican-held NY-11 district could alter its partisan lean before November, while June primaries produced notable shifts in New York City districts through retirements and progressive challenges. These localized developments, alongside the state’s closed primary system and ongoing campaign dynamics in swing districts, underpin the current market consensus on modest net changes from the existing 19–7 split.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$1,593End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.New York’s 26 House districts feature a cluster of competitive races that shape trader expectations around 19–21 Democratic seats. Several Long Island and Hudson Valley seats remain closely contested, including NY-3, NY-4, NY-17, and NY-19, where recent fundraising, candidate recruitment, and national generic-ballot trends influence assessments. Court rulings directing a potential redraw of the Republican-held NY-11 district could alter its partisan lean before November, while June primaries produced notable shifts in New York City districts through retirements and progressive challenges. These localized developments, alongside the state’s closed primary system and ongoing campaign dynamics in swing districts, underpin the current market consensus on modest net changes from the existing 19–7 split.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,593End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...New York’s 26 House districts feature a cluster of competitive races that shape trader expectations around 19–21 Democratic seats. Several Long Island and Hudson Valley seats remain closely contested, including NY-3, NY-4, NY-17, and NY-19, where recent fundraising, candidate recruitment, and national generic-ballot trends influence assessments. Court rulings directing a potential redraw of the Republican-held NY-11 district could alter its partisan lean before November, while June primaries produced notable shifts in New York City districts through retirements and progressive challenges. These localized developments, alongside the state’s closed primary system and ongoing campaign dynamics in swing districts, underpin the current market consensus on modest net changes from the existing 19–7 split.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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