Skip to main content
icon for How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?
Politics·Trump

How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?

icon for How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?
Politics·Trump

How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?

5 39%

3 28%

4 26%

6+ 17%

Polymarket
NEW

5 39%

3 28%

4 26%

6+ 17%

Polymarket
NEW

<3

$43 Vol.

11%

3

$43 Vol.

28%

4

$23 Vol.

26%

5

$23 Vol.

39%

6+

$23 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election. All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Republican-led redistricting in October 2025 shifted roughly 500,000 residents between North Carolina's 1st and 3rd districts, moving the Democratic-held 1st about eight points rightward on 2024 presidential baselines and heightening vulnerability for incumbent Don Davis. This adjustment, enacted via party-line votes on Senate Bill 249 without gubernatorial veto power, forms the core structural barrier to Democratic seat gains. Offsetting factors include the August 2026 retirement of Republican Chuck Edwards in the 11th, opening a Trump-won district now rated competitive by several forecasters, alongside primary outcomes and broader 2026 midterm dynamics that could affect turnout in battlegrounds. Trader consensus around three to five Democratic seats reflects these competing district-level pressures under the new map.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.

All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.

Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.

Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$156
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election. All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election. All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Republican-led redistricting in October 2025 shifted roughly 500,000 residents between North Carolina's 1st and 3rd districts, moving the Democratic-held 1st about eight points rightward on 2024 presidential baselines and heightening vulnerability for incumbent Don Davis. This adjustment, enacted via party-line votes on Senate Bill 249 without gubernatorial veto power, forms the core structural barrier to Democratic seat gains. Offsetting factors include the August 2026 retirement of Republican Chuck Edwards in the 11th, opening a Trump-won district now rated competitive by several forecasters, alongside primary outcomes and broader 2026 midterm dynamics that could affect turnout in battlegrounds. Trader consensus around three to five Democratic seats reflects these competing district-level pressures under the new map.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.

All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.

Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.

Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$156
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election. All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Related

icon for Will Democrats win exactly 8 House seats in Virginia in the 2026 midterm elections?

Will Democrats win exactly 8 House seats in Virginia in the 2026 midterm elections?

33%
icon for Will Democrats win exactly 1 House seats in South Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?

Will Democrats win exactly 1 House seats in South Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?

71%
icon for Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?

Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?

57%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "5" at 39%, followed by "3" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 11, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?" is "5" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.