Strong critical reception following its Venice Film Festival premiere on September 5 has lifted trader sentiment for Primetime's domestic opening, with Robert Pattinson's performance as Chris Hansen drawing widespread praise and a 90% Rotten Tomatoes score. A24's prestige positioning, combined with the film's timely subject matter drawn from To Catch a Predator, supports expectations of solid word-of-mouth among adult audiences. Tracking initially pointed to a $10-15 million debut, yet recent momentum and limited competition from titles like Heart of the Beast have shifted implied probabilities toward the 19-22 million and 22 million-plus brackets. The September 25 release falls in a lighter fall window where targeted marketing and precursor buzz often exceed modest pre-release forecasts, though A24's historical variability on non-horror titles keeps some downside risk priced in.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office
"Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office
22m+ 65%
19-22m 34%
16-19m 1.3%
10-13m <1%
$41,475 Vol.
$41,475 Vol.
Sep 27, 2026
<10m
<1%
10-13m
1%
13-16m
1%
16-19m
1%
19-22m
34%
22m+
65%
22m+ 65%
19-22m 34%
16-19m 1.3%
10-13m <1%
$41,475 Vol.
$41,475 Vol.
Sep 27, 2026
<10m
$3,047 Vol.
<1%
10-13m
$4,653 Vol.
1%
13-16m
$5,606 Vol.
1%
16-19m
$5,172 Vol.
1%
19-22m
$11,038 Vol.
34%
22m+
$11,960 Vol.
65%
This market will resolve according to how much "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 25 - 27) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong critical reception following its Venice Film Festival premiere on September 5 has lifted trader sentiment for Primetime's domestic opening, with Robert Pattinson's performance as Chris Hansen drawing widespread praise and a 90% Rotten Tomatoes score. A24's prestige positioning, combined with the film's timely subject matter drawn from To Catch a Predator, supports expectations of solid word-of-mouth among adult audiences. Tracking initially pointed to a $10-15 million debut, yet recent momentum and limited competition from titles like Heart of the Beast have shifted implied probabilities toward the 19-22 million and 22 million-plus brackets. The September 25 release falls in a lighter fall window where targeted marketing and precursor buzz often exceed modest pre-release forecasts, though A24's historical variability on non-horror titles keeps some downside risk priced in.
This market will resolve according to how much "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 25 - 27) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 10:20 PM ET
Volume
$41,475End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 25 - 27) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong critical reception following its Venice Film Festival premiere on September 5 has lifted trader sentiment for Primetime's domestic opening, with Robert Pattinson's performance as Chris Hansen drawing widespread praise and a 90% Rotten Tomatoes score. A24's prestige positioning, combined with the film's timely subject matter drawn from To Catch a Predator, supports expectations of solid word-of-mouth among adult audiences. Tracking initially pointed to a $10-15 million debut, yet recent momentum and limited competition from titles like Heart of the Beast have shifted implied probabilities toward the 19-22 million and 22 million-plus brackets. The September 25 release falls in a lighter fall window where targeted marketing and precursor buzz often exceed modest pre-release forecasts, though A24's historical variability on non-horror titles keeps some downside risk priced in.
This market will resolve according to how much "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 25 - 27) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$41,475End Date
Sep 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong critical reception following its Venice Film Festival premiere on September 5 has lifted trader sentiment for Primetime's domestic opening, with Robert Pattinson's performance as Chris Hansen drawing widespread praise and a 90% Rotten Tomatoes score. A24's prestige positioning, combined with the film's timely subject matter drawn from To Catch a Predator, supports expectations of solid word-of-mouth among adult audiences. Tracking initially pointed to a $10-15 million debut, yet recent momentum and limited competition from titles like Heart of the Beast have shifted implied probabilities toward the 19-22 million and 22 million-plus brackets. The September 25 release falls in a lighter fall window where targeted marketing and precursor buzz often exceed modest pre-release forecasts, though A24's historical variability on non-horror titles keeps some downside risk priced in.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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