Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening weekend in late July has driven trader consensus to a 76.5% implied probability, establishing it as the clear frontrunner for 2026’s biggest opening week. Strong presales, euphoric word-of-mouth, and comparisons to Avengers: Endgame fueled its momentum, outpacing all prior benchmarks. Avengers: Doomsday holds 23.5% odds ahead of its December 18 release, though it faces a steep challenge matching that summer benchmark. Toy Story 5’s solid June debut and the later November and December slots for The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah keep their implied probabilities minimal. Key catalysts ahead include holiday tracking updates and any late-year shifts in audience demand.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 77%
Avengers: Doomsday 24%
Toy Story 5 <1%
Dune: Messiah <1%
$62,958 Vol.
$62,958 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
77%
Avengers: Doomsday
24%
Toy Story 5
<1%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 77%
Avengers: Doomsday 24%
Toy Story 5 <1%
Dune: Messiah <1%
$62,958 Vol.
$62,958 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$15,104 Vol.
77%
Avengers: Doomsday
$16,097 Vol.
24%
Toy Story 5
$3,197 Vol.
<1%
Dune: Messiah
$3,010 Vol.
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$3,404 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening weekend in late July has driven trader consensus to a 76.5% implied probability, establishing it as the clear frontrunner for 2026’s biggest opening week. Strong presales, euphoric word-of-mouth, and comparisons to Avengers: Endgame fueled its momentum, outpacing all prior benchmarks. Avengers: Doomsday holds 23.5% odds ahead of its December 18 release, though it faces a steep challenge matching that summer benchmark. Toy Story 5’s solid June debut and the later November and December slots for The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah keep their implied probabilities minimal. Key catalysts ahead include holiday tracking updates and any late-year shifts in audience demand.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$62,958End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening weekend in late July has driven trader consensus to a 76.5% implied probability, establishing it as the clear frontrunner for 2026’s biggest opening week. Strong presales, euphoric word-of-mouth, and comparisons to Avengers: Endgame fueled its momentum, outpacing all prior benchmarks. Avengers: Doomsday holds 23.5% odds ahead of its December 18 release, though it faces a steep challenge matching that summer benchmark. Toy Story 5’s solid June debut and the later November and December slots for The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah keep their implied probabilities minimal. Key catalysts ahead include holiday tracking updates and any late-year shifts in audience demand.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$62,958End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening weekend in late July has driven trader consensus to a 76.5% implied probability, establishing it as the clear frontrunner for 2026’s biggest opening week. Strong presales, euphoric word-of-mouth, and comparisons to Avengers: Endgame fueled its momentum, outpacing all prior benchmarks. Avengers: Doomsday holds 23.5% odds ahead of its December 18 release, though it faces a steep challenge matching that summer benchmark. Toy Story 5’s solid June debut and the later November and December slots for The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah keep their implied probabilities minimal. Key catalysts ahead include holiday tracking updates and any late-year shifts in audience demand.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions