**Strong opening momentum and solid audience retention are positioning the 940-950 million domestic gross range as the consensus leader for Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s total through September 30.** Released July 31, 2026, the film posted a record $360 million domestic opening weekend—the biggest ever—fueled by massive pre-sales, Tom Holland and Zendaya’s star power, and broad Marvel appeal. It has since delivered healthy legs of roughly 2.4x through its fourth weekend, with the domestic total reaching approximately $869 million by late August. Typical drop patterns (-60%, -51%, -45%) and continued number-one status have supported steady weekly additions even as the film matures. Industry models now project a final domestic run in the $907–982 million band, placing the September 30 cumulative squarely in the 940–950 million window that traders have priced at 42.5% implied probability. The sub-940 million outcome (28.5%) remains plausible if later weeks soften more than expected, while higher brackets (950 million+) carry lower odds given the current trajectory. No major competitive shifts or negative reception signals have altered this outlook in the past week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
940 - 950m 43%
<940m 29%
950 - 960m 11%
970m+ 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<940m
29%
940 - 950m
43%
950 - 960m
11%
960 - 970m
9%
970m+
6%
940 - 950m 43%
<940m 29%
950 - 960m 11%
970m+ 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<940m
$1,993 Vol.
29%
940 - 950m
$305 Vol.
43%
950 - 960m
$383 Vol.
11%
960 - 970m
$215 Vol.
9%
970m+
$176 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong opening momentum and solid audience retention are positioning the 940-950 million domestic gross range as the consensus leader for Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s total through September 30.**
Released July 31, 2026, the film posted a record $360 million domestic opening weekend—the biggest ever—fueled by massive pre-sales, Tom Holland and Zendaya’s star power, and broad Marvel appeal. It has since delivered healthy legs of roughly 2.4x through its fourth weekend, with the domestic total reaching approximately $869 million by late August. Typical drop patterns (-60%, -51%, -45%) and continued number-one status have supported steady weekly additions even as the film matures.
Industry models now project a final domestic run in the $907–982 million band, placing the September 30 cumulative squarely in the 940–950 million window that traders have priced at 42.5% implied probability. The sub-940 million outcome (28.5%) remains plausible if later weeks soften more than expected, while higher brackets (950 million+) carry lower odds given the current trajectory. No major competitive shifts or negative reception signals have altered this outlook in the past week.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$3,072End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong opening momentum and solid audience retention are positioning the 940-950 million domestic gross range as the consensus leader for Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s total through September 30.**
Released July 31, 2026, the film posted a record $360 million domestic opening weekend—the biggest ever—fueled by massive pre-sales, Tom Holland and Zendaya’s star power, and broad Marvel appeal. It has since delivered healthy legs of roughly 2.4x through its fourth weekend, with the domestic total reaching approximately $869 million by late August. Typical drop patterns (-60%, -51%, -45%) and continued number-one status have supported steady weekly additions even as the film matures.
Industry models now project a final domestic run in the $907–982 million band, placing the September 30 cumulative squarely in the 940–950 million window that traders have priced at 42.5% implied probability. The sub-940 million outcome (28.5%) remains plausible if later weeks soften more than expected, while higher brackets (950 million+) carry lower odds given the current trajectory. No major competitive shifts or negative reception signals have altered this outlook in the past week.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$3,072End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong opening momentum and solid audience retention are positioning the 940-950 million domestic gross range as the consensus leader for Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s total through September 30.** Released July 31, 2026, the film posted a record $360 million domestic opening weekend—the biggest ever—fueled by massive pre-sales, Tom Holland and Zendaya’s star power, and broad Marvel appeal. It has since delivered healthy legs of roughly 2.4x through its fourth weekend, with the domestic total reaching approximately $869 million by late August. Typical drop patterns (-60%, -51%, -45%) and continued number-one status have supported steady weekly additions even as the film matures. Industry models now project a final domestic run in the $907–982 million band, placing the September 30 cumulative squarely in the 940–950 million window that traders have priced at 42.5% implied probability. The sub-940 million outcome (28.5%) remains plausible if later weeks soften more than expected, while higher brackets (950 million+) carry lower odds given the current trajectory. No major competitive shifts or negative reception signals have altered this outlook in the past week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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