Hong Kong has recorded 124.6 mm of rain through August 9, 2026, against a long-term August average of roughly 350–450 mm. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook favors near-normal totals for the August–October period, yet trader odds cluster around 650–700 mm or higher, reflecting expectations of additional monsoon trough activity and tropical cyclone passages. Key differentiators include South China Sea sea-surface temperatures supporting cyclogenesis, steering flow from the subtropical ridge, and model spread on landfall tracks or stalled systems that could deliver 100+ mm events in single days. With two weeks remaining, updated NHC and HKO guidance on any developing disturbances will determine whether totals remain near climatology or shift into the upper bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in August?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
700mm+ 39%
650-700mm 34%
600-650mm 30.1%
<425mm 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
22%
425-450mm
13%
450-475mm
26%
475-500mm
20%
500-525mm
22%
525-550mm
21%
550-600mm
20%
600-650mm
20%
650-700mm
27%
700mm+
30%
700mm+ 39%
650-700mm 34%
600-650mm 30.1%
<425mm 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
$2,085 Vol.
22%
425-450mm
$248 Vol.
13%
450-475mm
$177 Vol.
26%
475-500mm
$123 Vol.
20%
500-525mm
$145 Vol.
22%
525-550mm
$198 Vol.
21%
550-600mm
$161 Vol.
20%
600-650mm
$280 Vol.
20%
650-700mm
$227 Vol.
27%
700mm+
$1,264 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong has recorded 124.6 mm of rain through August 9, 2026, against a long-term August average of roughly 350–450 mm. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook favors near-normal totals for the August–October period, yet trader odds cluster around 650–700 mm or higher, reflecting expectations of additional monsoon trough activity and tropical cyclone passages. Key differentiators include South China Sea sea-surface temperatures supporting cyclogenesis, steering flow from the subtropical ridge, and model spread on landfall tracks or stalled systems that could deliver 100+ mm events in single days. With two weeks remaining, updated NHC and HKO guidance on any developing disturbances will determine whether totals remain near climatology or shift into the upper bins.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$4,907End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong has recorded 124.6 mm of rain through August 9, 2026, against a long-term August average of roughly 350–450 mm. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook favors near-normal totals for the August–October period, yet trader odds cluster around 650–700 mm or higher, reflecting expectations of additional monsoon trough activity and tropical cyclone passages. Key differentiators include South China Sea sea-surface temperatures supporting cyclogenesis, steering flow from the subtropical ridge, and model spread on landfall tracks or stalled systems that could deliver 100+ mm events in single days. With two weeks remaining, updated NHC and HKO guidance on any developing disturbances will determine whether totals remain near climatology or shift into the upper bins.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,907End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong has recorded 124.6 mm of rain through August 9, 2026, against a long-term August average of roughly 350–450 mm. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook favors near-normal totals for the August–October period, yet trader odds cluster around 650–700 mm or higher, reflecting expectations of additional monsoon trough activity and tropical cyclone passages. Key differentiators include South China Sea sea-surface temperatures supporting cyclogenesis, steering flow from the subtropical ridge, and model spread on landfall tracks or stalled systems that could deliver 100+ mm events in single days. With two weeks remaining, updated NHC and HKO guidance on any developing disturbances will determine whether totals remain near climatology or shift into the upper bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions