Sergio Moro’s nomination by the Liberal Party (PL) as its candidate for the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial election, paired with consistent polling leads of 39–47% in first-round scenarios, has driven trader consensus toward his strong position. Multiple recent surveys from Genial/Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas show him ahead of rivals such as Requião Filho and Rafael Greca by wide margins, with second-round projections often exceeding 20 points. His confirmation as the PL standard-bearer in early August 2026, selection of running mate Edson Vasconcelos, and backing from figures including Flávio Bolsonaro after the party’s split with incumbent-aligned groups have reinforced this positioning. Other listed contenders remain fragmented with lower single-digit to low-30s support in the same polls, reflecting limited consolidation behind alternatives ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedParaná Governor Election Winner
Paraná Governor Election Winner
Sergio Moro 83%
Alexandre Curi 6.5%
Beto Richa 2.9%
Enio Verri 2.8%
$43,570 Vol.
$43,570 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
Sergio Moro
83%
Alexandre Curi
7%
Beto Richa
3%
Enio Verri
3%
Rafael Greca
3%
Guto Silva
2%
Luiz França
1%
Requião Filho
1%
Sergio Moro 83%
Alexandre Curi 6.5%
Beto Richa 2.9%
Enio Verri 2.8%
$43,570 Vol.
$43,570 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
Sergio Moro
$34,179 Vol.
83%
Alexandre Curi
$452 Vol.
7%
Beto Richa
$371 Vol.
3%
Enio Verri
$309 Vol.
3%
Rafael Greca
$352 Vol.
3%
Guto Silva
$647 Vol.
2%
Luiz França
$272 Vol.
1%
Requião Filho
$6,990 Vol.
1%
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro’s nomination by the Liberal Party (PL) as its candidate for the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial election, paired with consistent polling leads of 39–47% in first-round scenarios, has driven trader consensus toward his strong position. Multiple recent surveys from Genial/Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas show him ahead of rivals such as Requião Filho and Rafael Greca by wide margins, with second-round projections often exceeding 20 points. His confirmation as the PL standard-bearer in early August 2026, selection of running mate Edson Vasconcelos, and backing from figures including Flávio Bolsonaro after the party’s split with incumbent-aligned groups have reinforced this positioning. Other listed contenders remain fragmented with lower single-digit to low-30s support in the same polls, reflecting limited consolidation behind alternatives ahead of the October vote.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Volume
$43,570End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro’s nomination by the Liberal Party (PL) as its candidate for the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial election, paired with consistent polling leads of 39–47% in first-round scenarios, has driven trader consensus toward his strong position. Multiple recent surveys from Genial/Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas show him ahead of rivals such as Requião Filho and Rafael Greca by wide margins, with second-round projections often exceeding 20 points. His confirmation as the PL standard-bearer in early August 2026, selection of running mate Edson Vasconcelos, and backing from figures including Flávio Bolsonaro after the party’s split with incumbent-aligned groups have reinforced this positioning. Other listed contenders remain fragmented with lower single-digit to low-30s support in the same polls, reflecting limited consolidation behind alternatives ahead of the October vote.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$43,570End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Sergio Moro’s nomination by the Liberal Party (PL) as its candidate for the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial election, paired with consistent polling leads of 39–47% in first-round scenarios, has driven trader consensus toward his strong position. Multiple recent surveys from Genial/Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas show him ahead of rivals such as Requião Filho and Rafael Greca by wide margins, with second-round projections often exceeding 20 points. His confirmation as the PL standard-bearer in early August 2026, selection of running mate Edson Vasconcelos, and backing from figures including Flávio Bolsonaro after the party’s split with incumbent-aligned groups have reinforced this positioning. Other listed contenders remain fragmented with lower single-digit to low-30s support in the same polls, reflecting limited consolidation behind alternatives ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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