**Anthropic’s release cadence favors larger models first, with Haiku versions following months later.** Claude Haiku 4.5 launched in October 2025 as the current lightweight offering, delivering near-Sonnet 4 coding performance at roughly one-third the cost and over twice the speed while supporting extended thinking and computer use. As of mid-August 2026, newer Claude 5-series models (Sonnet 5 in June, Opus 5 in July) have shipped without a corresponding Haiku update, consistent with prior gaps where Haiku trailed flagship releases. Trader sentiment reflects expectations that the next Haiku—likely a 5-series or incremental 4.x variant—will arrive only after further Sonnet or Opus stabilization, with key catalysts including any Anthropic developer events, API deprecation notices, or competitive benchmarks from rivals that could compress timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNext Claude Haiku released by...?
Next Claude Haiku released by...?
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
16%
October 31
60%
December 31
61%
$5,960 Vol.
August 31
$1,477 Vol.
16%
October 31
$791 Vol.
60%
December 31
$3,692 Vol.
61%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Anthropic’s release cadence favors larger models first, with Haiku versions following months later.** Claude Haiku 4.5 launched in October 2025 as the current lightweight offering, delivering near-Sonnet 4 coding performance at roughly one-third the cost and over twice the speed while supporting extended thinking and computer use. As of mid-August 2026, newer Claude 5-series models (Sonnet 5 in June, Opus 5 in July) have shipped without a corresponding Haiku update, consistent with prior gaps where Haiku trailed flagship releases. Trader sentiment reflects expectations that the next Haiku—likely a 5-series or incremental 4.x variant—will arrive only after further Sonnet or Opus stabilization, with key catalysts including any Anthropic developer events, API deprecation notices, or competitive benchmarks from rivals that could compress timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 6:47 PM ET
Volume
$5,960End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Anthropic’s release cadence favors larger models first, with Haiku versions following months later.** Claude Haiku 4.5 launched in October 2025 as the current lightweight offering, delivering near-Sonnet 4 coding performance at roughly one-third the cost and over twice the speed while supporting extended thinking and computer use. As of mid-August 2026, newer Claude 5-series models (Sonnet 5 in June, Opus 5 in July) have shipped without a corresponding Haiku update, consistent with prior gaps where Haiku trailed flagship releases. Trader sentiment reflects expectations that the next Haiku—likely a 5-series or incremental 4.x variant—will arrive only after further Sonnet or Opus stabilization, with key catalysts including any Anthropic developer events, API deprecation notices, or competitive benchmarks from rivals that could compress timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,960End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Anthropic’s release cadence favors larger models first, with Haiku versions following months later.** Claude Haiku 4.5 launched in October 2025 as the current lightweight offering, delivering near-Sonnet 4 coding performance at roughly one-third the cost and over twice the speed while supporting extended thinking and computer use. As of mid-August 2026, newer Claude 5-series models (Sonnet 5 in June, Opus 5 in July) have shipped without a corresponding Haiku update, consistent with prior gaps where Haiku trailed flagship releases. Trader sentiment reflects expectations that the next Haiku—likely a 5-series or incremental 4.x variant—will arrive only after further Sonnet or Opus stabilization, with key catalysts including any Anthropic developer events, API deprecation notices, or competitive benchmarks from rivals that could compress timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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