Recent polling for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election shows the Green Party holding steady near 12 percent, ahead of New Zealand First and ACT, which places it third behind the major parties in multiple surveys. This positioning has driven trader consensus toward the Greens at 59.5 percent implied probability. New Zealand First, polling around 8–9 percent, remains competitive for the spot at 37.5 percent amid fluctuating support and coalition dynamics. Smaller parties such as ACT, TOP, and Te Pāti Māori trail further back, limiting their prospects for third place. Recent shifts, including TOP’s surge and minor erosion for some coalition partners, have reinforced the current ordering without yet altering the leading probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNew Zealand Election: 3rd Place
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place
Green Party 60%
New Zealand First Party 38%
ACT New Zealand 4.4%
National Party 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 7, 2026
Green Party
60%
New Zealand First Party
38%
ACT New Zealand
4%
National Party
2%
Te Pāti Māori
<1%
Labour Party
<1%
Green Party 60%
New Zealand First Party 38%
ACT New Zealand 4.4%
National Party 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 7, 2026
Green Party
$2,736 Vol.
60%
New Zealand First Party
$2,989 Vol.
38%
ACT New Zealand
$673 Vol.
4%
National Party
$386 Vol.
2%
Te Pāti Māori
$745 Vol.
<1%
Labour Party
$1,036 Vol.
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election shows the Green Party holding steady near 12 percent, ahead of New Zealand First and ACT, which places it third behind the major parties in multiple surveys. This positioning has driven trader consensus toward the Greens at 59.5 percent implied probability. New Zealand First, polling around 8–9 percent, remains competitive for the spot at 37.5 percent amid fluctuating support and coalition dynamics. Smaller parties such as ACT, TOP, and Te Pāti Māori trail further back, limiting their prospects for third place. Recent shifts, including TOP’s surge and minor erosion for some coalition partners, have reinforced the current ordering without yet altering the leading probabilities.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$8,566End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election shows the Green Party holding steady near 12 percent, ahead of New Zealand First and ACT, which places it third behind the major parties in multiple surveys. This positioning has driven trader consensus toward the Greens at 59.5 percent implied probability. New Zealand First, polling around 8–9 percent, remains competitive for the spot at 37.5 percent amid fluctuating support and coalition dynamics. Smaller parties such as ACT, TOP, and Te Pāti Māori trail further back, limiting their prospects for third place. Recent shifts, including TOP’s surge and minor erosion for some coalition partners, have reinforced the current ordering without yet altering the leading probabilities.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Volume
$8,566End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election shows the Green Party holding steady near 12 percent, ahead of New Zealand First and ACT, which places it third behind the major parties in multiple surveys. This positioning has driven trader consensus toward the Greens at 59.5 percent implied probability. New Zealand First, polling around 8–9 percent, remains competitive for the spot at 37.5 percent amid fluctuating support and coalition dynamics. Smaller parties such as ACT, TOP, and Te Pāti Māori trail further back, limiting their prospects for third place. Recent shifts, including TOP’s surge and minor erosion for some coalition partners, have reinforced the current ordering without yet altering the leading probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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