AfD leads recent opinion polls for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election by several points, typically at 35-36 percent compared with SPD figures around 28-29 percent. This positioning as the largest party underpins the market's heavy weighting toward AfD securing the plurality of seats. The incumbent SPD-Left government, led by Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, trails amid regional strength for AfD in eastern states, while CDU, Linke, and smaller parties remain well behind in surveys and hold negligible implied probabilities of finishing first. With the vote still weeks away, late shifts in turnout or campaigning could narrow margins, though current polling trends sustain trader consensus on the frontrunner.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
AfD 85%
SPD 15%
Linke <1%
FW <1%
$447,897 Vol.
$447,897 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
85%
SPD
15%
Linke
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU
<1%
Grüne
<1%
FDP
<1%
BSW
<1%
AfD 85%
SPD 15%
Linke <1%
FW <1%
$447,897 Vol.
$447,897 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
$75,829 Vol.
85%
SPD
$92,387 Vol.
15%
Linke
$27,668 Vol.
<1%
FW
$36,709 Vol.
<1%
CDU
$44,445 Vol.
<1%
Grüne
$71,444 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$77,089 Vol.
<1%
BSW
$22,326 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).AfD leads recent opinion polls for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election by several points, typically at 35-36 percent compared with SPD figures around 28-29 percent. This positioning as the largest party underpins the market's heavy weighting toward AfD securing the plurality of seats. The incumbent SPD-Left government, led by Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, trails amid regional strength for AfD in eastern states, while CDU, Linke, and smaller parties remain well behind in surveys and hold negligible implied probabilities of finishing first. With the vote still weeks away, late shifts in turnout or campaigning could narrow margins, though current polling trends sustain trader consensus on the frontrunner.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$447,897End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).AfD leads recent opinion polls for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election by several points, typically at 35-36 percent compared with SPD figures around 28-29 percent. This positioning as the largest party underpins the market's heavy weighting toward AfD securing the plurality of seats. The incumbent SPD-Left government, led by Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, trails amid regional strength for AfD in eastern states, while CDU, Linke, and smaller parties remain well behind in surveys and hold negligible implied probabilities of finishing first. With the vote still weeks away, late shifts in turnout or campaigning could narrow margins, though current polling trends sustain trader consensus on the frontrunner.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$447,897End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...AfD leads recent opinion polls for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election by several points, typically at 35-36 percent compared with SPD figures around 28-29 percent. This positioning as the largest party underpins the market's heavy weighting toward AfD securing the plurality of seats. The incumbent SPD-Left government, led by Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, trails amid regional strength for AfD in eastern states, while CDU, Linke, and smaller parties remain well behind in surveys and hold negligible implied probabilities of finishing first. With the vote still weeks away, late shifts in turnout or campaigning could narrow margins, though current polling trends sustain trader consensus on the frontrunner.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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