The brief remaining window until 2027, combined with the fundamental limits of short-term earthquake forecasting, drives the market's strong consensus against a magnitude 6.5+ event in the Los Angeles region. USGS long-term models indicate roughly 60% probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger quake over 30 years due to accumulated strain along the San Andreas and nearby faults, yet daily to seasonal odds stay low absent clear precursors such as foreshock sequences or anomalous swarms. Recent Southern California monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only routine microseismicity and distant swarms like those near Brawley, with no elevated stress indicators or model consensus pointing to imminent rupture. An unforeseen mainshock sequence on a local fault segment remains the primary scenario that could alter this outlook before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
6% chance
$16,224 Vol.
$16,224 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$16,224 Vol.
$16,224 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The brief remaining window until 2027, combined with the fundamental limits of short-term earthquake forecasting, drives the market's strong consensus against a magnitude 6.5+ event in the Los Angeles region. USGS long-term models indicate roughly 60% probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger quake over 30 years due to accumulated strain along the San Andreas and nearby faults, yet daily to seasonal odds stay low absent clear precursors such as foreshock sequences or anomalous swarms. Recent Southern California monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only routine microseismicity and distant swarms like those near Brawley, with no elevated stress indicators or model consensus pointing to imminent rupture. An unforeseen mainshock sequence on a local fault segment remains the primary scenario that could alter this outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$16,224End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The brief remaining window until 2027, combined with the fundamental limits of short-term earthquake forecasting, drives the market's strong consensus against a magnitude 6.5+ event in the Los Angeles region. USGS long-term models indicate roughly 60% probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger quake over 30 years due to accumulated strain along the San Andreas and nearby faults, yet daily to seasonal odds stay low absent clear precursors such as foreshock sequences or anomalous swarms. Recent Southern California monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only routine microseismicity and distant swarms like those near Brawley, with no elevated stress indicators or model consensus pointing to imminent rupture. An unforeseen mainshock sequence on a local fault segment remains the primary scenario that could alter this outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$16,224End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The brief remaining window until 2027, combined with the fundamental limits of short-term earthquake forecasting, drives the market's strong consensus against a magnitude 6.5+ event in the Los Angeles region. USGS long-term models indicate roughly 60% probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger quake over 30 years due to accumulated strain along the San Andreas and nearby faults, yet daily to seasonal odds stay low absent clear precursors such as foreshock sequences or anomalous swarms. Recent Southern California monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only routine microseismicity and distant swarms like those near Brawley, with no elevated stress indicators or model consensus pointing to imminent rupture. An unforeseen mainshock sequence on a local fault segment remains the primary scenario that could alter this outlook before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions