Forecast models from MetService and NIWA currently indicate a minimum temperature near 9–10°C in Wellington on August 23 under northwesterly flow, with showers clearing to fine conditions that limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep winds elevated overnight. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 10°C, 8°C, and 15°C or higher, as small shifts in wind strength, cloud cover, or shower timing can alter the low by 2–3°C. August climatology shows average overnight lows near 8°C, but recent polar air outbreaks have given way to milder advection, increasing uncertainty in ensemble guidance and keeping probabilities for extremes like 5°C or below competitively priced despite lower baseline likelihood. Updated model runs and MetService briefings ahead of the overnight period represent the next key data points for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 23?
15°C or higher 65%
11°C 56%
10°C 48%
13°C 47%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
5°C or below
36%
6°C
21%
7°C
25%
8°C
38%
9°C
26%
10°C
48%
11°C
33%
12°C
23%
13°C
47%
14°C
8%
15°C or higher
65%
15°C or higher 65%
11°C 56%
10°C 48%
13°C 47%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
5°C or below
$5 Vol.
36%
6°C
$20 Vol.
21%
7°C
$20 Vol.
25%
8°C
$0 Vol.
38%
9°C
$0 Vol.
26%
10°C
$0 Vol.
48%
11°C
$4 Vol.
33%
12°C
$55 Vol.
23%
13°C
$5 Vol.
47%
14°C
$5 Vol.
8%
15°C or higher
$5 Vol.
65%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from MetService and NIWA currently indicate a minimum temperature near 9–10°C in Wellington on August 23 under northwesterly flow, with showers clearing to fine conditions that limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep winds elevated overnight. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 10°C, 8°C, and 15°C or higher, as small shifts in wind strength, cloud cover, or shower timing can alter the low by 2–3°C. August climatology shows average overnight lows near 8°C, but recent polar air outbreaks have given way to milder advection, increasing uncertainty in ensemble guidance and keeping probabilities for extremes like 5°C or below competitively priced despite lower baseline likelihood. Updated model runs and MetService briefings ahead of the overnight period represent the next key data points for traders.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$119End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from MetService and NIWA currently indicate a minimum temperature near 9–10°C in Wellington on August 23 under northwesterly flow, with showers clearing to fine conditions that limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep winds elevated overnight. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 10°C, 8°C, and 15°C or higher, as small shifts in wind strength, cloud cover, or shower timing can alter the low by 2–3°C. August climatology shows average overnight lows near 8°C, but recent polar air outbreaks have given way to milder advection, increasing uncertainty in ensemble guidance and keeping probabilities for extremes like 5°C or below competitively priced despite lower baseline likelihood. Updated model runs and MetService briefings ahead of the overnight period represent the next key data points for traders.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$119End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from MetService and NIWA currently indicate a minimum temperature near 9–10°C in Wellington on August 23 under northwesterly flow, with showers clearing to fine conditions that limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep winds elevated overnight. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 10°C, 8°C, and 15°C or higher, as small shifts in wind strength, cloud cover, or shower timing can alter the low by 2–3°C. August climatology shows average overnight lows near 8°C, but recent polar air outbreaks have given way to milder advection, increasing uncertainty in ensemble guidance and keeping probabilities for extremes like 5°C or below competitively priced despite lower baseline likelihood. Updated model runs and MetService briefings ahead of the overnight period represent the next key data points for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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