Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C in Tokyo on August 23, 2026, driven by residual moisture from showers on August 22 and moderate northeasterly winds limiting overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. High humidity levels near 80–90% further suppress temperature drops, consistent with late-summer climatology where Tokyo’s urban heat island typically keeps lows 1–2°C above rural baselines. Ensemble model spreads remain narrow around these values, explaining the near-even market-implied odds between 24°C and 25°C, while lower probabilities for 23°C or below reflect the low likelihood of stronger clearing or drier air advection before dawn. Updated guidance on August 22 will refine wind and cloud details ahead of the overnight period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 23?
24°C 56%
25°C 39%
23°C 10%
26°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
20°C or below
2%
21°C
7%
22°C
7%
23°C
10%
24°C
34%
25°C
39%
26°C
10%
27°C
5%
28°C
4%
29°C
5%
30°C or higher
1%
24°C 56%
25°C 39%
23°C 10%
26°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
20°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
21°C
$5 Vol.
7%
22°C
$0 Vol.
7%
23°C
$0 Vol.
10%
24°C
$4 Vol.
34%
25°C
$0 Vol.
39%
26°C
$0 Vol.
10%
27°C
$0 Vol.
5%
28°C
$20 Vol.
4%
29°C
$25 Vol.
5%
30°C or higher
$25 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C in Tokyo on August 23, 2026, driven by residual moisture from showers on August 22 and moderate northeasterly winds limiting overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. High humidity levels near 80–90% further suppress temperature drops, consistent with late-summer climatology where Tokyo’s urban heat island typically keeps lows 1–2°C above rural baselines. Ensemble model spreads remain narrow around these values, explaining the near-even market-implied odds between 24°C and 25°C, while lower probabilities for 23°C or below reflect the low likelihood of stronger clearing or drier air advection before dawn. Updated guidance on August 22 will refine wind and cloud details ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$84End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C in Tokyo on August 23, 2026, driven by residual moisture from showers on August 22 and moderate northeasterly winds limiting overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. High humidity levels near 80–90% further suppress temperature drops, consistent with late-summer climatology where Tokyo’s urban heat island typically keeps lows 1–2°C above rural baselines. Ensemble model spreads remain narrow around these values, explaining the near-even market-implied odds between 24°C and 25°C, while lower probabilities for 23°C or below reflect the low likelihood of stronger clearing or drier air advection before dawn. Updated guidance on August 22 will refine wind and cloud details ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$84End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C in Tokyo on August 23, 2026, driven by residual moisture from showers on August 22 and moderate northeasterly winds limiting overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. High humidity levels near 80–90% further suppress temperature drops, consistent with late-summer climatology where Tokyo’s urban heat island typically keeps lows 1–2°C above rural baselines. Ensemble model spreads remain narrow around these values, explaining the near-even market-implied odds between 24°C and 25°C, while lower probabilities for 23°C or below reflect the low likelihood of stronger clearing or drier air advection before dawn. Updated guidance on August 22 will refine wind and cloud details ahead of the overnight period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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