Recent model runs from European and global forecasting centers indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will likely drive Paris minimum temperatures into the 13–16°C range on August 21, 2026, consistent with historical averages near 14°C and current northwesterly flow advecting cooler maritime air. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover modulating longwave heat loss, dew-point depression near 10–12°C limiting further cooling, light winds (2–5 m/s) that reduce mixing, and the urban heat-island effect that typically adds 1–2°C relative to rural stations. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in exact timing of the nocturnal minimum and local microclimate variations, with new observational data from Météo-France expected to refine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 21?
14°C 23%
15°C 11%
12°C <1%
11°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
34%
14°C
27%
15°C
29%
16°C
41%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
14°C 23%
15°C 11%
12°C <1%
11°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
11°C or below
$434 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$427 Vol.
1%
13°C
$594 Vol.
34%
14°C
$2,069 Vol.
27%
15°C
$596 Vol.
29%
16°C
$198 Vol.
41%
17°C
$1,045 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$883 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$291 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$291 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$281 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from European and global forecasting centers indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will likely drive Paris minimum temperatures into the 13–16°C range on August 21, 2026, consistent with historical averages near 14°C and current northwesterly flow advecting cooler maritime air. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover modulating longwave heat loss, dew-point depression near 10–12°C limiting further cooling, light winds (2–5 m/s) that reduce mixing, and the urban heat-island effect that typically adds 1–2°C relative to rural stations. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in exact timing of the nocturnal minimum and local microclimate variations, with new observational data from Météo-France expected to refine resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$7,108End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from European and global forecasting centers indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will likely drive Paris minimum temperatures into the 13–16°C range on August 21, 2026, consistent with historical averages near 14°C and current northwesterly flow advecting cooler maritime air. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover modulating longwave heat loss, dew-point depression near 10–12°C limiting further cooling, light winds (2–5 m/s) that reduce mixing, and the urban heat-island effect that typically adds 1–2°C relative to rural stations. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in exact timing of the nocturnal minimum and local microclimate variations, with new observational data from Météo-France expected to refine resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,108End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs from European and global forecasting centers indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will likely drive Paris minimum temperatures into the 13–16°C range on August 21, 2026, consistent with historical averages near 14°C and current northwesterly flow advecting cooler maritime air. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover modulating longwave heat loss, dew-point depression near 10–12°C limiting further cooling, light winds (2–5 m/s) that reduce mixing, and the urban heat-island effect that typically adds 1–2°C relative to rural stations. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in exact timing of the nocturnal minimum and local microclimate variations, with new observational data from Météo-France expected to refine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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