Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS consensus place the minimum temperature in Milan on 23 August near 18–21 °C under a building anticyclone, light northeasterly flow, and partial cloud cover that moderates radiational cooling. Recent heavy rainfall has elevated boundary-layer moisture and dew points, limiting overnight temperature drops compared with drier conditions. Model spread arises mainly from differences in simulated low-level cloud and wind speed during the pre-dawn hours, with clearer-sky solutions favoring the lower end of the range. Historical August minima for the site average around 17–19 °C, providing context for the current tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 16–19 °C outcomes. Updated model runs and satellite trends expected before resolution will refine these estimates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Milan on August 23?
13°C or below 84%
23°C or higher 47%
22°C 45%
16°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
13°C or below
84%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
28%
17°C
28%
18°C
27%
19°C
27%
20°C
26%
21°C
2%
22°C
45%
23°C or higher
47%
13°C or below 84%
23°C or higher 47%
22°C 45%
16°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
13°C or below
$25 Vol.
84%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
26%
16°C
$0 Vol.
28%
17°C
$0 Vol.
28%
18°C
$0 Vol.
27%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$25 Vol.
26%
21°C
$5 Vol.
2%
22°C
$5 Vol.
45%
23°C or higher
$5 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS consensus place the minimum temperature in Milan on 23 August near 18–21 °C under a building anticyclone, light northeasterly flow, and partial cloud cover that moderates radiational cooling. Recent heavy rainfall has elevated boundary-layer moisture and dew points, limiting overnight temperature drops compared with drier conditions. Model spread arises mainly from differences in simulated low-level cloud and wind speed during the pre-dawn hours, with clearer-sky solutions favoring the lower end of the range. Historical August minima for the site average around 17–19 °C, providing context for the current tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 16–19 °C outcomes. Updated model runs and satellite trends expected before resolution will refine these estimates.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$65End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS consensus place the minimum temperature in Milan on 23 August near 18–21 °C under a building anticyclone, light northeasterly flow, and partial cloud cover that moderates radiational cooling. Recent heavy rainfall has elevated boundary-layer moisture and dew points, limiting overnight temperature drops compared with drier conditions. Model spread arises mainly from differences in simulated low-level cloud and wind speed during the pre-dawn hours, with clearer-sky solutions favoring the lower end of the range. Historical August minima for the site average around 17–19 °C, providing context for the current tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 16–19 °C outcomes. Updated model runs and satellite trends expected before resolution will refine these estimates.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$65End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS consensus place the minimum temperature in Milan on 23 August near 18–21 °C under a building anticyclone, light northeasterly flow, and partial cloud cover that moderates radiational cooling. Recent heavy rainfall has elevated boundary-layer moisture and dew points, limiting overnight temperature drops compared with drier conditions. Model spread arises mainly from differences in simulated low-level cloud and wind speed during the pre-dawn hours, with clearer-sky solutions favoring the lower end of the range. Historical August minima for the site average around 17–19 °C, providing context for the current tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 16–19 °C outcomes. Updated model runs and satellite trends expected before resolution will refine these estimates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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