Forecast models from sources like the Met Office and YR.no indicate an overnight low near 13–14°C for Amsterdam on August 21, 2026, aligning with the market’s strong 60% implied probability for that outcome. Late-summer cooling driven by maritime air from the North Sea and weakening high-pressure systems typically produces minimum temperatures in this range, consistent with climatological averages of 12–14°C for the final third of August. Recent model runs show limited variability and no significant warm or cold anomalies, supporting trader consensus around the seasonal norm while acknowledging potential for minor forecast adjustments from updated observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 21?
12°C 2%
11°C 1.7%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
2%
13°C
60%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
12°C 2%
11°C 1.7%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
9°C or below
$298 Vol.
1%
10°C
$92 Vol.
1%
11°C
$50 Vol.
2%
12°C
$127 Vol.
2%
13°C
$20 Vol.
60%
14°C
$469 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$390 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$722 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$564 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$374 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$439 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the Met Office and YR.no indicate an overnight low near 13–14°C for Amsterdam on August 21, 2026, aligning with the market’s strong 60% implied probability for that outcome. Late-summer cooling driven by maritime air from the North Sea and weakening high-pressure systems typically produces minimum temperatures in this range, consistent with climatological averages of 12–14°C for the final third of August. Recent model runs show limited variability and no significant warm or cold anomalies, supporting trader consensus around the seasonal norm while acknowledging potential for minor forecast adjustments from updated observations.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$3,544End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the Met Office and YR.no indicate an overnight low near 13–14°C for Amsterdam on August 21, 2026, aligning with the market’s strong 60% implied probability for that outcome. Late-summer cooling driven by maritime air from the North Sea and weakening high-pressure systems typically produces minimum temperatures in this range, consistent with climatological averages of 12–14°C for the final third of August. Recent model runs show limited variability and no significant warm or cold anomalies, supporting trader consensus around the seasonal norm while acknowledging potential for minor forecast adjustments from updated observations.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,544End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources like the Met Office and YR.no indicate an overnight low near 13–14°C for Amsterdam on August 21, 2026, aligning with the market’s strong 60% implied probability for that outcome. Late-summer cooling driven by maritime air from the North Sea and weakening high-pressure systems typically produces minimum temperatures in this range, consistent with climatological averages of 12–14°C for the final third of August. Recent model runs show limited variability and no significant warm or cold anomalies, supporting trader consensus around the seasonal norm while acknowledging potential for minor forecast adjustments from updated observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions