Amir Ohana leads the 2026 Likud primary odds at 64.5% because recent internal polls among party members show him topping preference rankings at 73%, ahead of figures like Tally Gotliv, while informal mini-primaries at the Eilat conference also placed him first alongside Eli Cohen. Netanyahu’s approved reserved slots for eight candidates on the Knesset list have narrowed open competition and sparked pushback from MKs such as Gotliv, who criticized the move as undermining voter input ahead of the August 17 primary. Lower-priced contenders including Yariv Levin and Gotliv reflect narrower bases among registered voters and the impact of these procedural changes, with no primary by election day priced at just 4.7% given the confirmed timeline. Trader consensus incorporates these polling trends and institutional factors while acknowledging that final ballot results could shift with turnout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAmir Ohana 65%
Tally Gotliv 17.8%
Yariv Levin 10.6%
Eli Cohen 5.8%
$52,976 Vol.
$52,976 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
Amir Ohana
65%
Tally Gotliv
18%
Yariv Levin
7%
Eli Cohen
6%
No Primary by Knesset Election
4%
Moshe Saada
2%
Boaz Bismuth
1%
David Bitan
1%
Shlomo Karhi
1%
Almog Cohen
1%
David Amsalem
1%
Amichai Chikli
1%
Yoav Kisch
1%
Miki Zohar
1%
Israel Katz
<1%
Miri Regev
<1%
Nir Barkat
<1%
Amir Ohana 65%
Tally Gotliv 17.8%
Yariv Levin 10.6%
Eli Cohen 5.8%
$52,976 Vol.
$52,976 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
Amir Ohana
$18,475 Vol.
65%
Tally Gotliv
$8,296 Vol.
18%
Yariv Levin
$3,653 Vol.
7%
Eli Cohen
$1,316 Vol.
6%
No Primary by Knesset Election
$9,585 Vol.
4%
Moshe Saada
$757 Vol.
2%
Boaz Bismuth
$1,017 Vol.
1%
David Bitan
$727 Vol.
1%
Shlomo Karhi
$891 Vol.
1%
Almog Cohen
$784 Vol.
1%
David Amsalem
$707 Vol.
1%
Amichai Chikli
$785 Vol.
1%
Yoav Kisch
$716 Vol.
1%
Miki Zohar
$559 Vol.
1%
Israel Katz
$2,120 Vol.
<1%
Miri Regev
$536 Vol.
<1%
Nir Barkat
$2,055 Vol.
<1%
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.Amir Ohana leads the 2026 Likud primary odds at 64.5% because recent internal polls among party members show him topping preference rankings at 73%, ahead of figures like Tally Gotliv, while informal mini-primaries at the Eilat conference also placed him first alongside Eli Cohen. Netanyahu’s approved reserved slots for eight candidates on the Knesset list have narrowed open competition and sparked pushback from MKs such as Gotliv, who criticized the move as undermining voter input ahead of the August 17 primary. Lower-priced contenders including Yariv Levin and Gotliv reflect narrower bases among registered voters and the impact of these procedural changes, with no primary by election day priced at just 4.7% given the confirmed timeline. Trader consensus incorporates these polling trends and institutional factors while acknowledging that final ballot results could shift with turnout.
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Market Opened: Jul 21, 2026, 7:34 PM ET
Volume
$52,976End Date
Oct 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 7:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.Amir Ohana leads the 2026 Likud primary odds at 64.5% because recent internal polls among party members show him topping preference rankings at 73%, ahead of figures like Tally Gotliv, while informal mini-primaries at the Eilat conference also placed him first alongside Eli Cohen. Netanyahu’s approved reserved slots for eight candidates on the Knesset list have narrowed open competition and sparked pushback from MKs such as Gotliv, who criticized the move as undermining voter input ahead of the August 17 primary. Lower-priced contenders including Yariv Levin and Gotliv reflect narrower bases among registered voters and the impact of these procedural changes, with no primary by election day priced at just 4.7% given the confirmed timeline. Trader consensus incorporates these polling trends and institutional factors while acknowledging that final ballot results could shift with turnout.
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Volume
$52,976End Date
Oct 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 7:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amir Ohana leads the 2026 Likud primary odds at 64.5% because recent internal polls among party members show him topping preference rankings at 73%, ahead of figures like Tally Gotliv, while informal mini-primaries at the Eilat conference also placed him first alongside Eli Cohen. Netanyahu’s approved reserved slots for eight candidates on the Knesset list have narrowed open competition and sparked pushback from MKs such as Gotliv, who criticized the move as undermining voter input ahead of the August 17 primary. Lower-priced contenders including Yariv Levin and Gotliv reflect narrower bases among registered voters and the impact of these procedural changes, with no primary by election day priced at just 4.7% given the confirmed timeline. Trader consensus incorporates these polling trends and institutional factors while acknowledging that final ballot results could shift with turnout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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