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Politics·House

Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?

icon for Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?
Politics·House

Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?

6% chance
Polymarket
NEW
6% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent congressional action underscores the low likelihood of passage. In July 2026, a Massie amendment to strip $3.3 billion in annual security assistance from a State Department appropriations bill failed 104-314, with only 103 Democrats supporting it despite internal party divisions. Broader defense measures, including the NDAA, advanced through the House with pro-Israel provisions emphasizing continued cooperation and funding. Standalone proposals such as the Block the Bombs Act have attracted limited co-sponsors and remain stalled in committee. With Republican majorities favoring aid, short legislative calendar remaining before September 30, and no scheduled floor consideration for restrictive language, trader consensus reflects entrenched bipartisan patterns favoring sustained assistance over new constraints.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,957
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent congressional action underscores the low likelihood of passage. In July 2026, a Massie amendment to strip $3.3 billion in annual security assistance from a State Department appropriations bill failed 104-314, with only 103 Democrats supporting it despite internal party divisions. Broader defense measures, including the NDAA, advanced through the House with pro-Israel provisions emphasizing continued cooperation and funding. Standalone proposals such as the Block the Bombs Act have attracted limited co-sponsors and remain stalled in committee. With Republican majorities favoring aid, short legislative calendar remaining before September 30, and no scheduled floor consideration for restrictive language, trader consensus reflects entrenched bipartisan patterns favoring sustained assistance over new constraints.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,957
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 6% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 6¢, the market collectively assigns a 6% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" is 6% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 6% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.