Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran's supreme leadership in early March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in a US-Israeli strike. Since then, he has maintained a notably low public profile, communicating primarily through written statements amid ongoing regional conflict and security concerns. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether recent official video releases and presidential meetings signal an imminent in-person appearance or continued caution due to health rumors and potential targeting. Key near-term catalysts include any scheduled religious commemorations, Assembly of Experts sessions, or state media events that could prompt a verified sighting, while structural factors like succession precedents and wartime risk assessments continue to shape implied probabilities around timing.