Diplomatic normalization with Israel remains centered on expanding the Abraham Accords framework amid stalled talks with key holdouts. As of mid-2026, roughly 169 UN members recognize Israel, leaving primarily Muslim-majority states such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Indonesia, and several others without formal ties. US administration efforts have intensified pressure to link additional recognitions to Iran-related negotiations or Palestinian statehood progress, though Riyadh has reiterated that concrete advances on a two-state outcome are prerequisites. Limited recent movement includes Kazakhstan's reported involvement and isolated relation restorations, but no major breakthroughs have occurred since 2020. Trader focus centers on whether US-mediated diplomacy can deliver new Arab or Muslim-state accessions before year-end deadlines, weighed against regional security dynamics and Palestinian track requirements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
$665,180 Vol.

Venezuela
13%

Saudi Arabia
11%

Indonesia
9%

Lebanon
8%

Tunisia
7%

Kuwait
6%

Syria
6%

North Korea
5%

Cuba
5%

Iran
5%

Pakistan
5%

Malaysia
4%

Bangladesh
4%

Iraq
4%

Qatar
3%

Afghanistan
3%
$665,180 Vol.

Venezuela
13%

Saudi Arabia
11%

Indonesia
9%

Lebanon
8%

Tunisia
7%

Kuwait
6%

Syria
6%

North Korea
5%

Cuba
5%

Iran
5%

Pakistan
5%

Malaysia
4%

Bangladesh
4%

Iraq
4%

Qatar
3%

Afghanistan
3%
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 1, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic normalization with Israel remains centered on expanding the Abraham Accords framework amid stalled talks with key holdouts. As of mid-2026, roughly 169 UN members recognize Israel, leaving primarily Muslim-majority states such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Indonesia, and several others without formal ties. US administration efforts have intensified pressure to link additional recognitions to Iran-related negotiations or Palestinian statehood progress, though Riyadh has reiterated that concrete advances on a two-state outcome are prerequisites. Limited recent movement includes Kazakhstan's reported involvement and isolated relation restorations, but no major breakthroughs have occurred since 2020. Trader focus centers on whether US-mediated diplomacy can deliver new Arab or Muslim-state accessions before year-end deadlines, weighed against regional security dynamics and Palestinian track requirements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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