Amir Ohana holds the highest implied probability in the Likud primary market at 60 percent, driven by recent surveys of registered party members that place him ahead of other contenders for top slots on the Knesset list. The August 17 primary remains the scheduled mechanism for selecting candidates, with low odds on cancellation reflecting party rules and limited procedural barriers. Tally Gotliv and Yariv Levin follow at lower probabilities consistent with their secondary standing in member rankings, while Netanyahu's reserved appointments for select positions have shaped competition without displacing the primary process. High numbers of ministers and MKs vying for a constrained set of realistic spots further concentrates trader focus on established loyalists like Ohana who perform strongly in internal polling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAmir Ohana 61%
Tally Gotliv 19.7%
Yariv Levin 18.4%
Boaz Bismuth 2.2%
$50,503 Vol.
$50,503 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
Amir Ohana
61%
Tally Gotliv
20%
Yariv Levin
18%
Boaz Bismuth
2%
Moshe Saada
2%
No Primary by Knesset Election
2%
Eli Cohen
1%
Shlomo Karhi
1%
David Bitan
1%
Amichai Chikli
1%
Yoav Kisch
1%
Miki Zohar
1%
David Amsalem
<1%
Israel Katz
<1%
Miri Regev
<1%
Nir Barkat
<1%
Almog Cohen
<1%
Amir Ohana 61%
Tally Gotliv 19.7%
Yariv Levin 18.4%
Boaz Bismuth 2.2%
$50,503 Vol.
$50,503 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
Amir Ohana
$18,091 Vol.
61%
Tally Gotliv
$7,897 Vol.
20%
Yariv Levin
$3,551 Vol.
18%
Boaz Bismuth
$987 Vol.
2%
Moshe Saada
$727 Vol.
2%
No Primary by Knesset Election
$9,443 Vol.
2%
Eli Cohen
$1,135 Vol.
1%
Shlomo Karhi
$860 Vol.
1%
David Bitan
$707 Vol.
1%
Amichai Chikli
$605 Vol.
1%
Yoav Kisch
$686 Vol.
1%
Miki Zohar
$528 Vol.
1%
David Amsalem
$484 Vol.
<1%
Israel Katz
$1,908 Vol.
<1%
Miri Regev
$516 Vol.
<1%
Nir Barkat
$1,824 Vol.
<1%
Almog Cohen
$553 Vol.
<1%
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.Amir Ohana holds the highest implied probability in the Likud primary market at 60 percent, driven by recent surveys of registered party members that place him ahead of other contenders for top slots on the Knesset list. The August 17 primary remains the scheduled mechanism for selecting candidates, with low odds on cancellation reflecting party rules and limited procedural barriers. Tally Gotliv and Yariv Levin follow at lower probabilities consistent with their secondary standing in member rankings, while Netanyahu's reserved appointments for select positions have shaped competition without displacing the primary process. High numbers of ministers and MKs vying for a constrained set of realistic spots further concentrates trader focus on established loyalists like Ohana who perform strongly in internal polling.
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Market Opened: Jul 21, 2026, 7:34 PM ET
Volume
$50,503End Date
Oct 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 7:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.Amir Ohana holds the highest implied probability in the Likud primary market at 60 percent, driven by recent surveys of registered party members that place him ahead of other contenders for top slots on the Knesset list. The August 17 primary remains the scheduled mechanism for selecting candidates, with low odds on cancellation reflecting party rules and limited procedural barriers. Tally Gotliv and Yariv Levin follow at lower probabilities consistent with their secondary standing in member rankings, while Netanyahu's reserved appointments for select positions have shaped competition without displacing the primary process. High numbers of ministers and MKs vying for a constrained set of realistic spots further concentrates trader focus on established loyalists like Ohana who perform strongly in internal polling.
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.
If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".
If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Volume
$50,503End Date
Oct 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 7:34 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amir Ohana holds the highest implied probability in the Likud primary market at 60 percent, driven by recent surveys of registered party members that place him ahead of other contenders for top slots on the Knesset list. The August 17 primary remains the scheduled mechanism for selecting candidates, with low odds on cancellation reflecting party rules and limited procedural barriers. Tally Gotliv and Yariv Levin follow at lower probabilities consistent with their secondary standing in member rankings, while Netanyahu's reserved appointments for select positions have shaped competition without displacing the primary process. High numbers of ministers and MKs vying for a constrained set of realistic spots further concentrates trader focus on established loyalists like Ohana who perform strongly in internal polling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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