Trader consensus around 60–99 tornadoes reflects below-average early August activity amid the typical seasonal decline, as the jet stream shifts northward and instability wanes after peak spring/early summer months. Historical climatology shows roughly 81 confirmed U.S. tornadoes in August, concentrated in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and occasional tropical remnants, with recent confirmed counts from early-month events (including several weak EF0–EF1 tornadoes in the Ohio Valley on August 1) running lighter than normal. Differentiating the tightly matched bins are variables such as steering patterns, convective available potential energy (CAPE) levels, and any late-month tropical cyclone influences, with official SPC outlooks indicating low tornado probabilities through mid-August and limited model agreement on intensification potential. This uncertainty, combined with ongoing surveillance updates, keeps multiple bins competitive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
100–119 20%
60-79 17%
40–59 16%
140-169 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<40
10%
40–59
13%
60-79
20%
80-99
24%
100–119
20%
120–139
22%
140-169
14%
170–199
8%
200+
24%
100–119 20%
60-79 17%
40–59 16%
140-169 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<40
$136 Vol.
10%
40–59
$85 Vol.
13%
60-79
$60 Vol.
20%
80-99
$52 Vol.
24%
100–119
$62 Vol.
20%
120–139
$52 Vol.
22%
140-169
$96 Vol.
14%
170–199
$125 Vol.
8%
200+
$205 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus around 60–99 tornadoes reflects below-average early August activity amid the typical seasonal decline, as the jet stream shifts northward and instability wanes after peak spring/early summer months. Historical climatology shows roughly 81 confirmed U.S. tornadoes in August, concentrated in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and occasional tropical remnants, with recent confirmed counts from early-month events (including several weak EF0–EF1 tornadoes in the Ohio Valley on August 1) running lighter than normal. Differentiating the tightly matched bins are variables such as steering patterns, convective available potential energy (CAPE) levels, and any late-month tropical cyclone influences, with official SPC outlooks indicating low tornado probabilities through mid-August and limited model agreement on intensification potential. This uncertainty, combined with ongoing surveillance updates, keeps multiple bins competitive.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$874End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus around 60–99 tornadoes reflects below-average early August activity amid the typical seasonal decline, as the jet stream shifts northward and instability wanes after peak spring/early summer months. Historical climatology shows roughly 81 confirmed U.S. tornadoes in August, concentrated in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and occasional tropical remnants, with recent confirmed counts from early-month events (including several weak EF0–EF1 tornadoes in the Ohio Valley on August 1) running lighter than normal. Differentiating the tightly matched bins are variables such as steering patterns, convective available potential energy (CAPE) levels, and any late-month tropical cyclone influences, with official SPC outlooks indicating low tornado probabilities through mid-August and limited model agreement on intensification potential. This uncertainty, combined with ongoing surveillance updates, keeps multiple bins competitive.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$874End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 60–99 tornadoes reflects below-average early August activity amid the typical seasonal decline, as the jet stream shifts northward and instability wanes after peak spring/early summer months. Historical climatology shows roughly 81 confirmed U.S. tornadoes in August, concentrated in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and occasional tropical remnants, with recent confirmed counts from early-month events (including several weak EF0–EF1 tornadoes in the Ohio Valley on August 1) running lighter than normal. Differentiating the tightly matched bins are variables such as steering patterns, convective available potential energy (CAPE) levels, and any late-month tropical cyclone influences, with official SPC outlooks indicating low tornado probabilities through mid-August and limited model agreement on intensification potential. This uncertainty, combined with ongoing surveillance updates, keeps multiple bins competitive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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