Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System place Paris maximum temperatures on August 18 most likely in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius under stable high pressure and limited warm-air advection. This drives the near-even market-implied odds across 25–29 °C outcomes while capping probabilities for 30 °C and above. Ensemble spread reflects typical two-day uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and local urban heat effects, yet climatological August baselines near 26–28 °C and absence of heatwave indicators keep higher thresholds at low odds. The next model cycles will clarify whether subtle shifts in steering flow alter the central tendency before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 18?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 18?
27°C 37%
28°C 34%
29°C 28%
26°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
10%
26°C
13%
27°C
27%
28°C
34%
29°C
28%
30°C
5%
31°C
7%
32°C
3%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
27°C 37%
28°C 34%
29°C 28%
26°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
$20 Vol.
10%
26°C
$0 Vol.
13%
27°C
$10 Vol.
27%
28°C
$0 Vol.
34%
29°C
$25 Vol.
28%
30°C
$0 Vol.
5%
31°C
$0 Vol.
7%
32°C
$0 Vol.
3%
33°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$0 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System place Paris maximum temperatures on August 18 most likely in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius under stable high pressure and limited warm-air advection. This drives the near-even market-implied odds across 25–29 °C outcomes while capping probabilities for 30 °C and above. Ensemble spread reflects typical two-day uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and local urban heat effects, yet climatological August baselines near 26–28 °C and absence of heatwave indicators keep higher thresholds at low odds. The next model cycles will clarify whether subtle shifts in steering flow alter the central tendency before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$54End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System place Paris maximum temperatures on August 18 most likely in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius under stable high pressure and limited warm-air advection. This drives the near-even market-implied odds across 25–29 °C outcomes while capping probabilities for 30 °C and above. Ensemble spread reflects typical two-day uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and local urban heat effects, yet climatological August baselines near 26–28 °C and absence of heatwave indicators keep higher thresholds at low odds. The next model cycles will clarify whether subtle shifts in steering flow alter the central tendency before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$54End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System place Paris maximum temperatures on August 18 most likely in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius under stable high pressure and limited warm-air advection. This drives the near-even market-implied odds across 25–29 °C outcomes while capping probabilities for 30 °C and above. Ensemble spread reflects typical two-day uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and local urban heat effects, yet climatological August baselines near 26–28 °C and absence of heatwave indicators keep higher thresholds at low odds. The next model cycles will clarify whether subtle shifts in steering flow alter the central tendency before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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