Recent cooling after a mid-August heatwave—with Paris highs falling from 37–38°C earlier in the week to 29–30°C on the 15th–16th—has positioned 29°C as the market leader at 55.5% implied probability. Official Météo-France guidance and ensemble models forecast mostly cloudy conditions on the 17th, limiting daytime heating and supporting a maximum near 28–29°C, consistent with late-summer climatology. Traders weigh the narrow spread between 28°C and 30°C outcomes against potential model shifts or clearer skies that could push readings higher, while noting the low odds for extremes given the recent stabilization of Atlantic airflow patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 17?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 17?
29°C 56%
28°C 28%
30°C 14%
27°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
28%
29°C
56%
30°C
14%
31°C
2%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 56%
28°C 28%
30°C 14%
27°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
24°C or below
$334 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$511 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$304 Vol.
1%
27°C
$879 Vol.
5%
28°C
$1,164 Vol.
28%
29°C
$2,984 Vol.
56%
30°C
$730 Vol.
14%
31°C
$544 Vol.
2%
32°C
$713 Vol.
1%
33°C
$444 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$518 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cooling after a mid-August heatwave—with Paris highs falling from 37–38°C earlier in the week to 29–30°C on the 15th–16th—has positioned 29°C as the market leader at 55.5% implied probability. Official Météo-France guidance and ensemble models forecast mostly cloudy conditions on the 17th, limiting daytime heating and supporting a maximum near 28–29°C, consistent with late-summer climatology. Traders weigh the narrow spread between 28°C and 30°C outcomes against potential model shifts or clearer skies that could push readings higher, while noting the low odds for extremes given the recent stabilization of Atlantic airflow patterns.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
Volume
$9,125End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cooling after a mid-August heatwave—with Paris highs falling from 37–38°C earlier in the week to 29–30°C on the 15th–16th—has positioned 29°C as the market leader at 55.5% implied probability. Official Météo-France guidance and ensemble models forecast mostly cloudy conditions on the 17th, limiting daytime heating and supporting a maximum near 28–29°C, consistent with late-summer climatology. Traders weigh the narrow spread between 28°C and 30°C outcomes against potential model shifts or clearer skies that could push readings higher, while noting the low odds for extremes given the recent stabilization of Atlantic airflow patterns.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,125End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cooling after a mid-August heatwave—with Paris highs falling from 37–38°C earlier in the week to 29–30°C on the 15th–16th—has positioned 29°C as the market leader at 55.5% implied probability. Official Météo-France guidance and ensemble models forecast mostly cloudy conditions on the 17th, limiting daytime heating and supporting a maximum near 28–29°C, consistent with late-summer climatology. Traders weigh the narrow spread between 28°C and 30°C outcomes against potential model shifts or clearer skies that could push readings higher, while noting the low odds for extremes given the recent stabilization of Atlantic airflow patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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