Recent forecast guidance from agencies including Spain’s AEMET and the UK Met Office points to a daytime maximum near 30–32 °C in Madrid on August 21, 2026, under mostly clear skies, light winds, and moderating Atlantic air advection that limits further warming in the city’s continental climate regime. This consensus underpins the market’s strong implied probabilities for 31 °C (56.5 %) and 32 °C (38.0 %), consistent with late-August climatology and ensemble model runs showing limited upside absent late shifts in frontal timing or urban heat-island effects. Updated morning observations and model revisions will refine the precise peak before official verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 21?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 21?
31°C 56%
32°C 38%
33°C 4%
30°C 3%
$38,257 Vol.
$38,257 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
3%
31°C
56%
32°C
38%
33°C
4%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 56%
32°C 38%
33°C 4%
30°C 3%
$38,257 Vol.
$38,257 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
27°C or below
$1,215 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,666 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,294 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$5,455 Vol.
3%
31°C
$5,847 Vol.
56%
32°C
$9,257 Vol.
38%
33°C
$3,855 Vol.
4%
34°C
$3,633 Vol.
1%
35°C
$2,057 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$1,659 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$2,769 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from agencies including Spain’s AEMET and the UK Met Office points to a daytime maximum near 30–32 °C in Madrid on August 21, 2026, under mostly clear skies, light winds, and moderating Atlantic air advection that limits further warming in the city’s continental climate regime. This consensus underpins the market’s strong implied probabilities for 31 °C (56.5 %) and 32 °C (38.0 %), consistent with late-August climatology and ensemble model runs showing limited upside absent late shifts in frontal timing or urban heat-island effects. Updated morning observations and model revisions will refine the precise peak before official verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$38,257End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from agencies including Spain’s AEMET and the UK Met Office points to a daytime maximum near 30–32 °C in Madrid on August 21, 2026, under mostly clear skies, light winds, and moderating Atlantic air advection that limits further warming in the city’s continental climate regime. This consensus underpins the market’s strong implied probabilities for 31 °C (56.5 %) and 32 °C (38.0 %), consistent with late-August climatology and ensemble model runs showing limited upside absent late shifts in frontal timing or urban heat-island effects. Updated morning observations and model revisions will refine the precise peak before official verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$38,257End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from agencies including Spain’s AEMET and the UK Met Office points to a daytime maximum near 30–32 °C in Madrid on August 21, 2026, under mostly clear skies, light winds, and moderating Atlantic air advection that limits further warming in the city’s continental climate regime. This consensus underpins the market’s strong implied probabilities for 31 °C (56.5 %) and 32 °C (38.0 %), consistent with late-August climatology and ensemble model runs showing limited upside absent late shifts in frontal timing or urban heat-island effects. Updated morning observations and model revisions will refine the precise peak before official verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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