**Forecast models for Madrid on August 17 point to a peak temperature centered in the upper 30s Celsius, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 37°C (48.5%) and 38°C (30.5%).** This reflects a typical mid-August setup under high pressure with clear skies and warm-air advection from North Africa, allowing strong daytime solar heating in Madrid's continental climate. Recent model runs show highs of 34–36°C (94–97°F) in several reliable sources, with some guidance reaching 37–38°C amid low wind and minimal cloud cover. Historical August averages near 32–33°C provide context, but the current stable anticyclonic pattern supports the elevated range without recent disruptive shifts like frontal passages. Uncertainty remains in exact peak timing and localized effects, keeping 36°C as a notable secondary outcome while lower or much higher readings stay improbable. Updated official guidance from agencies like AEMET or ECMWF runs will likely refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 17?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 17?
37°C 51%
38°C 31%
36°C 15%
35°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
2%
35°C
4%
36°C
15%
37°C
51%
38°C
31%
39°C
3%
40°C
1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
37°C 51%
38°C 31%
36°C 15%
35°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
32°C or below
$680 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$345 Vol.
1%
34°C
$396 Vol.
2%
35°C
$581 Vol.
4%
36°C
$2,269 Vol.
15%
37°C
$1,378 Vol.
51%
38°C
$2,401 Vol.
31%
39°C
$239 Vol.
3%
40°C
$436 Vol.
1%
41°C
$171 Vol.
<1%
42°C or higher
$292 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for Madrid on August 17 point to a peak temperature centered in the upper 30s Celsius, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 37°C (48.5%) and 38°C (30.5%).**
This reflects a typical mid-August setup under high pressure with clear skies and warm-air advection from North Africa, allowing strong daytime solar heating in Madrid's continental climate. Recent model runs show highs of 34–36°C (94–97°F) in several reliable sources, with some guidance reaching 37–38°C amid low wind and minimal cloud cover.
Historical August averages near 32–33°C provide context, but the current stable anticyclonic pattern supports the elevated range without recent disruptive shifts like frontal passages. Uncertainty remains in exact peak timing and localized effects, keeping 36°C as a notable secondary outcome while lower or much higher readings stay improbable. Updated official guidance from agencies like AEMET or ECMWF runs will likely refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volume
$9,189End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for Madrid on August 17 point to a peak temperature centered in the upper 30s Celsius, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 37°C (48.5%) and 38°C (30.5%).**
This reflects a typical mid-August setup under high pressure with clear skies and warm-air advection from North Africa, allowing strong daytime solar heating in Madrid's continental climate. Recent model runs show highs of 34–36°C (94–97°F) in several reliable sources, with some guidance reaching 37–38°C amid low wind and minimal cloud cover.
Historical August averages near 32–33°C provide context, but the current stable anticyclonic pattern supports the elevated range without recent disruptive shifts like frontal passages. Uncertainty remains in exact peak timing and localized effects, keeping 36°C as a notable secondary outcome while lower or much higher readings stay improbable. Updated official guidance from agencies like AEMET or ECMWF runs will likely refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,189End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models for Madrid on August 17 point to a peak temperature centered in the upper 30s Celsius, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 37°C (48.5%) and 38°C (30.5%).** This reflects a typical mid-August setup under high pressure with clear skies and warm-air advection from North Africa, allowing strong daytime solar heating in Madrid's continental climate. Recent model runs show highs of 34–36°C (94–97°F) in several reliable sources, with some guidance reaching 37–38°C amid low wind and minimal cloud cover. Historical August averages near 32–33°C provide context, but the current stable anticyclonic pattern supports the elevated range without recent disruptive shifts like frontal passages. Uncertainty remains in exact peak timing and localized effects, keeping 36°C as a notable secondary outcome while lower or much higher readings stay improbable. Updated official guidance from agencies like AEMET or ECMWF runs will likely refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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