Recent forecasts from the Chongqing Meteorological Station and international models indicate a highest temperature on August 22 most likely between 35–38°C, with scattered showers and thunderstorms moderating peaks amid persistent high humidity and cloud cover. Subtropical high pressure promotes subsidence and clear intervals that allow solar heating, yet frequent convection from moist southwesterly flow increases cloudiness, reduces insolation, and triggers evaporative cooling that differentiates outcomes near 35°C versus 37°C. Recent days have seen similar patterns, with actual highs of 32–35°C under rain influence after earlier 37–39°C spells. Traders weigh model consensus on steering patterns and localized storm timing against the urban heat island effect in the Sichuan Basin, where small shifts in precipitation timing can swing the daily maximum by 1–2°C.