xAI’s ongoing Grok iterations remain the central driver of trader sentiment on the highest 2026 HLE score, with earlier Grok 4 variants establishing competitive baselines around 25–45 percent when tool use and multi-agent setups are allowed. Frontier models from Anthropic, Google, and others have since pushed the overall leaderboard past 60 percent on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, creating pressure for xAI to close the gap through larger training runs, improved reasoning scaffolding, or integration with real-time tools before year-end. Key catalysts include any confirmed Grok 5 release timeline, internal capability demos, or official HLE submissions that would update market-implied odds; traders also watch competitive release cycles and regulatory scrutiny on advanced AI training that could slow progress across labs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$16,627 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
45%+
61%
50%+
48%
55%+
47%
60%+
15%
65%+
4%
$16,627 Vol.
45%+
$8,571 Vol.
61%
50%+
$2,032 Vol.
48%
55%+
$4,499 Vol.
47%
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$1,384 Vol.
15%
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$140 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".xAI’s ongoing Grok iterations remain the central driver of trader sentiment on the highest 2026 HLE score, with earlier Grok 4 variants establishing competitive baselines around 25–45 percent when tool use and multi-agent setups are allowed. Frontier models from Anthropic, Google, and others have since pushed the overall leaderboard past 60 percent on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, creating pressure for xAI to close the gap through larger training runs, improved reasoning scaffolding, or integration with real-time tools before year-end. Key catalysts include any confirmed Grok 5 release timeline, internal capability demos, or official HLE submissions that would update market-implied odds; traders also watch competitive release cycles and regulatory scrutiny on advanced AI training that could slow progress across labs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$16,627End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".xAI’s ongoing Grok iterations remain the central driver of trader sentiment on the highest 2026 HLE score, with earlier Grok 4 variants establishing competitive baselines around 25–45 percent when tool use and multi-agent setups are allowed. Frontier models from Anthropic, Google, and others have since pushed the overall leaderboard past 60 percent on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, creating pressure for xAI to close the gap through larger training runs, improved reasoning scaffolding, or integration with real-time tools before year-end. Key catalysts include any confirmed Grok 5 release timeline, internal capability demos, or official HLE submissions that would update market-implied odds; traders also watch competitive release cycles and regulatory scrutiny on advanced AI training that could slow progress across labs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$16,627End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...xAI’s ongoing Grok iterations remain the central driver of trader sentiment on the highest 2026 HLE score, with earlier Grok 4 variants establishing competitive baselines around 25–45 percent when tool use and multi-agent setups are allowed. Frontier models from Anthropic, Google, and others have since pushed the overall leaderboard past 60 percent on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, creating pressure for xAI to close the gap through larger training runs, improved reasoning scaffolding, or integration with real-time tools before year-end. Key catalysts include any confirmed Grok 5 release timeline, internal capability demos, or official HLE submissions that would update market-implied odds; traders also watch competitive release cycles and regulatory scrutiny on advanced AI training that could slow progress across labs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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