OpenAI's August 7 pause of select Astra development activities, triggered by evaluations showing critical-level agentic coding and autonomous cyber capabilities, has created broad uncertainty that flattens probabilities across late-August through early-November windows. The model was publicly confirmed August 1 as the company's next major frontier system after demonstrating advances on long-standing math problems, yet the company has since emphasized strengthened safeguards, universal monitoring, and phased rollout to defenders before broad availability. This safety-first approach, aligned with OpenAI's preparedness framework, distinguishes Astra from the July GPT-5.6 tier while mirroring historical delays when novel risks surface. Traders are watching for follow-up security updates or conference announcements that could clarify a concrete release path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNot released by November 1 42%
August 31–September 6 39%
September 14–20 39%
September 21–27 39%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
Before August 31
38%
August 31–September 6
39%
September 7–13
38%
September 14–20
39%
September 21–27
39%
September 28–October 4
39%
October 5–11
39%
October 12–18
39%
October 19–25
39%
October 26–November 1
39%
Not released by November 1
42%
Not released by November 1 42%
August 31–September 6 39%
September 14–20 39%
September 21–27 39%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
Before August 31
$0 Vol.
38%
August 31–September 6
$0 Vol.
39%
September 7–13
$0 Vol.
38%
September 14–20
$0 Vol.
39%
September 21–27
$0 Vol.
39%
September 28–October 4
$0 Vol.
39%
October 5–11
$0 Vol.
39%
October 12–18
$0 Vol.
39%
October 19–25
$0 Vol.
39%
October 26–November 1
$0 Vol.
39%
Not released by November 1
$0 Vol.
42%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI's August 7 pause of select Astra development activities, triggered by evaluations showing critical-level agentic coding and autonomous cyber capabilities, has created broad uncertainty that flattens probabilities across late-August through early-November windows. The model was publicly confirmed August 1 as the company's next major frontier system after demonstrating advances on long-standing math problems, yet the company has since emphasized strengthened safeguards, universal monitoring, and phased rollout to defenders before broad availability. This safety-first approach, aligned with OpenAI's preparedness framework, distinguishes Astra from the July GPT-5.6 tier while mirroring historical delays when novel risks surface. Traders are watching for follow-up security updates or conference announcements that could clarify a concrete release path.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI's August 7 pause of select Astra development activities, triggered by evaluations showing critical-level agentic coding and autonomous cyber capabilities, has created broad uncertainty that flattens probabilities across late-August through early-November windows. The model was publicly confirmed August 1 as the company's next major frontier system after demonstrating advances on long-standing math problems, yet the company has since emphasized strengthened safeguards, universal monitoring, and phased rollout to defenders before broad availability. This safety-first approach, aligned with OpenAI's preparedness framework, distinguishes Astra from the July GPT-5.6 tier while mirroring historical delays when novel risks surface. Traders are watching for follow-up security updates or conference announcements that could clarify a concrete release path.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's August 7 pause of select Astra development activities, triggered by evaluations showing critical-level agentic coding and autonomous cyber capabilities, has created broad uncertainty that flattens probabilities across late-August through early-November windows. The model was publicly confirmed August 1 as the company's next major frontier system after demonstrating advances on long-standing math problems, yet the company has since emphasized strengthened safeguards, universal monitoring, and phased rollout to defenders before broad availability. This safety-first approach, aligned with OpenAI's preparedness framework, distinguishes Astra from the July GPT-5.6 tier while mirroring historical delays when novel risks surface. Traders are watching for follow-up security updates or conference announcements that could clarify a concrete release path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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