**Ongoing federal and state investigations into sexual misconduct allegations against former Rep. Eric Swalwell have produced search warrants and device seizures but no arrest as of early September 2026.** FBI agents executed warrants in mid-August, seizing an iPhone and MacBook from Swalwell at San Francisco International Airport and searching his Washington, D.C., residence the next day as part of a civil-rights probe tied to allegations from multiple women, including a former staffer. Separate inquiries continue in Manhattan and Los Angeles. Swalwell resigned from Congress in April after the claims surfaced and has denied wrongdoing. With roughly three weeks remaining until the September 30 resolution date, the absence of charges or detention reflects standard investigative timelines for evidence review rather than imminent action. Traders assign 93% probability to no arrest by the deadline, consistent with the pace of similar cases where device analysis and charging decisions extend well beyond initial warrants. No public developments since the August searches indicate an expedited arrest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Ongoing federal and state investigations into sexual misconduct allegations against former Rep. Eric Swalwell have produced search warrants and device seizures but no arrest as of early September 2026.**
FBI agents executed warrants in mid-August, seizing an iPhone and MacBook from Swalwell at San Francisco International Airport and searching his Washington, D.C., residence the next day as part of a civil-rights probe tied to allegations from multiple women, including a former staffer. Separate inquiries continue in Manhattan and Los Angeles. Swalwell resigned from Congress in April after the claims surfaced and has denied wrongdoing.
With roughly three weeks remaining until the September 30 resolution date, the absence of charges or detention reflects standard investigative timelines for evidence review rather than imminent action. Traders assign 93% probability to no arrest by the deadline, consistent with the pace of similar cases where device analysis and charging decisions extend well beyond initial warrants. No public developments since the August searches indicate an expedited arrest.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Volume
$22End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Ongoing federal and state investigations into sexual misconduct allegations against former Rep. Eric Swalwell have produced search warrants and device seizures but no arrest as of early September 2026.**
FBI agents executed warrants in mid-August, seizing an iPhone and MacBook from Swalwell at San Francisco International Airport and searching his Washington, D.C., residence the next day as part of a civil-rights probe tied to allegations from multiple women, including a former staffer. Separate inquiries continue in Manhattan and Los Angeles. Swalwell resigned from Congress in April after the claims surfaced and has denied wrongdoing.
With roughly three weeks remaining until the September 30 resolution date, the absence of charges or detention reflects standard investigative timelines for evidence review rather than imminent action. Traders assign 93% probability to no arrest by the deadline, consistent with the pace of similar cases where device analysis and charging decisions extend well beyond initial warrants. No public developments since the August searches indicate an expedited arrest.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$22End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing federal and state investigations into sexual misconduct allegations against former Rep. Eric Swalwell have produced search warrants and device seizures but no arrest as of early September 2026.** FBI agents executed warrants in mid-August, seizing an iPhone and MacBook from Swalwell at San Francisco International Airport and searching his Washington, D.C., residence the next day as part of a civil-rights probe tied to allegations from multiple women, including a former staffer. Separate inquiries continue in Manhattan and Los Angeles. Swalwell resigned from Congress in April after the claims surfaced and has denied wrongdoing. With roughly three weeks remaining until the September 30 resolution date, the absence of charges or detention reflects standard investigative timelines for evidence review rather than imminent action. Traders assign 93% probability to no arrest by the deadline, consistent with the pace of similar cases where device analysis and charging decisions extend well beyond initial warrants. No public developments since the August searches indicate an expedited arrest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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