The Pitt’s commanding 92.5% implied probability stems from its dominant 2026 Emmy nomination haul of 25 nods—far ahead of the field—including Outstanding Drama Series and multiple acting categories for its second season on HBO Max. The medical drama’s strong critical reception, expanded ensemble support, and repeat-incumbent momentum have consolidated trader consensus ahead of final voting. While Slow Horses, The Diplomat, Paradise, and others remain eligible, none have matched The Pitt’s precursor strength or guild-level buzz. An upset remains possible only if late campaign shifts or unexpected voter fatigue emerge before the September ceremony, though current industry signals point to a decisive repeat victory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding drama series
Emmys 2026: Outstanding drama series
“The Pitt” 93%
"The Diplomat" 2.5%
“Paradise” 2.4%
“Slow Horses” 1.6%
$14,874 Vol.
$14,874 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Pitt”
93%
"The Diplomat"
2%
“Paradise”
2%
“Slow Horses”
2%
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms”
1%
“Your Friends & Neighbors”
1%
“The Gilded Age”
1%
“The Pitt” 93%
"The Diplomat" 2.5%
“Paradise” 2.4%
“Slow Horses” 1.6%
$14,874 Vol.
$14,874 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Pitt”
$10,273 Vol.
93%
"The Diplomat"
$579 Vol.
2%
“Paradise”
$673 Vol.
2%
“Slow Horses”
$1,763 Vol.
2%
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms”
$434 Vol.
1%
“Your Friends & Neighbors”
$583 Vol.
1%
“The Gilded Age”
$569 Vol.
1%
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Pitt’s commanding 92.5% implied probability stems from its dominant 2026 Emmy nomination haul of 25 nods—far ahead of the field—including Outstanding Drama Series and multiple acting categories for its second season on HBO Max. The medical drama’s strong critical reception, expanded ensemble support, and repeat-incumbent momentum have consolidated trader consensus ahead of final voting. While Slow Horses, The Diplomat, Paradise, and others remain eligible, none have matched The Pitt’s precursor strength or guild-level buzz. An upset remains possible only if late campaign shifts or unexpected voter fatigue emerge before the September ceremony, though current industry signals point to a decisive repeat victory.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Volume
$14,874End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Pitt’s commanding 92.5% implied probability stems from its dominant 2026 Emmy nomination haul of 25 nods—far ahead of the field—including Outstanding Drama Series and multiple acting categories for its second season on HBO Max. The medical drama’s strong critical reception, expanded ensemble support, and repeat-incumbent momentum have consolidated trader consensus ahead of final voting. While Slow Horses, The Diplomat, Paradise, and others remain eligible, none have matched The Pitt’s precursor strength or guild-level buzz. An upset remains possible only if late campaign shifts or unexpected voter fatigue emerge before the September ceremony, though current industry signals point to a decisive repeat victory.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding drama series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$14,874End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Pitt’s commanding 92.5% implied probability stems from its dominant 2026 Emmy nomination haul of 25 nods—far ahead of the field—including Outstanding Drama Series and multiple acting categories for its second season on HBO Max. The medical drama’s strong critical reception, expanded ensemble support, and repeat-incumbent momentum have consolidated trader consensus ahead of final voting. While Slow Horses, The Diplomat, Paradise, and others remain eligible, none have matched The Pitt’s precursor strength or guild-level buzz. An upset remains possible only if late campaign shifts or unexpected voter fatigue emerge before the September ceremony, though current industry signals point to a decisive repeat victory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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