ABC World News Tonight with David Muir’s weekly average of 8.339 million total viewers for Aug. 3–9 positions the 8.5m–9m range as the market frontrunner at 50% implied probability, reflecting consistent audience draw from sustained Middle East coverage—including Israeli strikes in Gaza and U.S.-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz—alongside domestic stories such as Midwest storms, wildfires, and the largest measles outbreak in decades. The newscast extended its streak as the top-rated evening broadcast on all television, posting modest week-to-week gains without a single breakout episode. Historical patterns for major-news weeks and Nielsen live-plus-same-day adjustments support trader consensus around the upper end of typical performance, though final per-episode peaks remain sensitive to late-week developments and any revisions in the data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated# Views of Most Viewed ABC World News Tonight Episode This Week (Aug 3-9)
<7m 25%
7m–7.5m 25%
7.5m–8m 25%
8m–8.5m 25%
$104 Vol.
$104 Vol.
<7m
25%
7m–7.5m
25%
7.5m–8m
25%
8m–8.5m
25%
8.5m–9m
51%
9m–9.5m
25%
9.5m–10m
25%
10m+
25%
<7m 25%
7m–7.5m 25%
7.5m–8m 25%
8m–8.5m 25%
$104 Vol.
$104 Vol.
<7m
25%
7m–7.5m
25%
7.5m–8m
25%
8m–8.5m
25%
8.5m–9m
51%
9m–9.5m
25%
9.5m–10m
25%
10m+
25%
This market will resolve according to the number of U.S. viewers (Persons 2+ average total viewers, P2+) of the highest viewed episode of ABC World News Tonight for the Week of August 3 - August 9, as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart.
This market will resolve based on the first official estimate reported by Nielsen. Any later revisions or retractions will have no bearing on resolution.
If the specified show does not appear on the final chart for the specified week, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the data for the specified week is entirely unreleased by 11:59 PM ET on the second Thursday following the specified week, this market will resolve according to the lowest bracket. If the data for the specified week remains partially published (i.e. excluding certain days of the week) by that time, or if only some episodes of ABC World News Tonight appear on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart, this market will resolve based on the viewership data available at that point.
If the reported number of viewers falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve according to Nielsen’s P2+ viewership statistic for the specified week, as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart, regardless of any future changes in methodology. If Nielsen ceases to publish the P2+ viewership statistic on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Nielsen, specifically their P2+ viewership statistic as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart (see: https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#television).
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 8:23 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#televisionResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of U.S. viewers (Persons 2+ average total viewers, P2+) of the highest viewed episode of ABC World News Tonight for the Week of August 3 - August 9, as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart.
This market will resolve based on the first official estimate reported by Nielsen. Any later revisions or retractions will have no bearing on resolution.
If the specified show does not appear on the final chart for the specified week, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the data for the specified week is entirely unreleased by 11:59 PM ET on the second Thursday following the specified week, this market will resolve according to the lowest bracket. If the data for the specified week remains partially published (i.e. excluding certain days of the week) by that time, or if only some episodes of ABC World News Tonight appear on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart, this market will resolve based on the viewership data available at that point.
If the reported number of viewers falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve according to Nielsen’s P2+ viewership statistic for the specified week, as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart, regardless of any future changes in methodology. If Nielsen ceases to publish the P2+ viewership statistic on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Nielsen, specifically their P2+ viewership statistic as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart (see: https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#television).
Resolution Source
https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#televisionResolver
0x69c47De9D...ABC World News Tonight with David Muir’s weekly average of 8.339 million total viewers for Aug. 3–9 positions the 8.5m–9m range as the market frontrunner at 50% implied probability, reflecting consistent audience draw from sustained Middle East coverage—including Israeli strikes in Gaza and U.S.-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz—alongside domestic stories such as Midwest storms, wildfires, and the largest measles outbreak in decades. The newscast extended its streak as the top-rated evening broadcast on all television, posting modest week-to-week gains without a single breakout episode. Historical patterns for major-news weeks and Nielsen live-plus-same-day adjustments support trader consensus around the upper end of typical performance, though final per-episode peaks remain sensitive to late-week developments and any revisions in the data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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