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icon for Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series

Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series

icon for Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series

Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series

“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” 60%

“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” 18.8%

“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” 12.8%

“The Daily Show” <1%

Polymarket

$62,904 Vol.

“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” 60%

“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” 18.8%

“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” 12.8%

“The Daily Show” <1%

Polymarket

$62,904 Vol.

“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”

$19,553 Vol.

60%

“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”

$16,537 Vol.

19%

“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”

$10,901 Vol.

13%

“The Daily Show”

$8,549 Vol.

1%

“Saturday Night Live”

$7,364 Vol.

1%

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The July 2026 Emmy nominations announcement, which merged talk and scripted variety into one Outstanding Variety Series category featuring The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, Saturday Night Live, and The Daily Show, serves as the key catalyst behind current market-implied odds. Trader consensus favors Colbert at 60% largely due to the emotional weight of his May 2026 series finale after 11 seasons, combined with strong precursor momentum and multiple nominations. Kimmel benefits from residual public support following his 2025 suspension and reinstatement, while Oliver draws on his perennial frontrunner status and critical consistency. SNL and The Daily Show trail with lower implied probabilities amid competition from these event-driven narratives. With the September 14 ceremony approaching, final guild and critics' signals could still influence voting sentiment.

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California

This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$62,904
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The July 2026 Emmy nominations announcement, which merged talk and scripted variety into one Outstanding Variety Series category featuring The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, Saturday Night Live, and The Daily Show, serves as the key catalyst behind current market-implied odds. Trader consensus favors Colbert at 60% largely due to the emotional weight of his May 2026 series finale after 11 seasons, combined with strong precursor momentum and multiple nominations. Kimmel benefits from residual public support following his 2025 suspension and reinstatement, while Oliver draws on his perennial frontrunner status and critical consistency. SNL and The Daily Show trail with lower implied probabilities amid competition from these event-driven narratives. With the September 14 ceremony approaching, final guild and critics' signals could still influence voting sentiment.

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California

This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$62,904
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”" at 60%, followed by "“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 60¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series" has generated $62.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series" is "“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”" at 60%, meaning the market assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.