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icon for Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie

Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie

icon for Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie

Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie

Carey Mulligan – “Beef” 44%

Sarah Snook – “All Her Fault” 27%

Sally Field – “Remarkably Bright Creatures” 15.2%

Sarah Pidgeon – “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” 8.8%

Polymarket

$39,168 Vol.

Carey Mulligan – “Beef” 44%

Sarah Snook – “All Her Fault” 27%

Sally Field – “Remarkably Bright Creatures” 15.2%

Sarah Pidgeon – “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” 8.8%

Polymarket

$39,168 Vol.

Carey Mulligan – “Beef”

$16,279 Vol.

44%

Sarah Snook – “All Her Fault”

$9,159 Vol.

27%

Sally Field – “Remarkably Bright Creatures”

$4,456 Vol.

15%

Sarah Pidgeon – “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette”

$7,111 Vol.

9%

Claire Danes – “The Beast In Me”

$2,164 Vol.

4%

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for "Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie". If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Carey Mulligan holds the lead in the 2026 Emmys limited series lead actress market following Beef Season 2’s strong nomination haul and ongoing franchise momentum, with traders citing her unsympathetic yet compelling performance as a key driver of implied probability. Sarah Snook sits second after All Her Fault earned multiple nods, including for the series itself, signaling solid Peacock support and critical attention for her mother-in-crisis role. Sally Field’s third-place standing reflects persistent industry affection and precursor buzz for Remarkably Bright Creatures, while Sarah Pidgeon and Claire Danes trail amid more limited campaign visibility for their respective projects. The race remains fluid heading into the September ceremony, where guild and critics’ momentum could shift sentiment quickly.

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California

This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for "Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie".

If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$39,168
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 12:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for "Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie". If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for "Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie". If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Carey Mulligan holds the lead in the 2026 Emmys limited series lead actress market following Beef Season 2’s strong nomination haul and ongoing franchise momentum, with traders citing her unsympathetic yet compelling performance as a key driver of implied probability. Sarah Snook sits second after All Her Fault earned multiple nods, including for the series itself, signaling solid Peacock support and critical attention for her mother-in-crisis role. Sally Field’s third-place standing reflects persistent industry affection and precursor buzz for Remarkably Bright Creatures, while Sarah Pidgeon and Claire Danes trail amid more limited campaign visibility for their respective projects. The race remains fluid heading into the September ceremony, where guild and critics’ momentum could shift sentiment quickly.

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California

This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for "Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie".

If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$39,168
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 12:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for "Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie". If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Carey Mulligan – “Beef”" at 44%, followed by "Sarah Snook – “All Her Fault”" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie" has generated $39.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 10, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie" is "Carey Mulligan – “Beef”" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sarah Snook – “All Her Fault”" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.