Recent weekly windows show Elon Musk averaging roughly 25–34 posts per day on X, with the September 15–22 period resolving at 220–239 tweets amid steady platform engagement and routine company commentary. Traders have clustered probability around the 180–259 bands because this range aligns with his established baseline when no major Tesla, SpaceX, or xAI milestones, regulatory developments, or political flashpoints intervene. The narrow spread among leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether the coming stretch will stay quiet or encounter a catalyst that pushes daily volume above 35 or below 25. Any verified product launch, earnings-related news, or high-profile exchange during the seven-day window remains the key swing factor that could shift the final tally into an adjacent bracket.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated200-219 20%
220-239 18%
180-199 15%
240-259 14%
$124,094 Vol.
$124,094 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
2%
140-159
4%
160-179
10%
180-199
15%
200-219
20%
220-239
18%
240-259
14%
260-279
9%
280-299
4%
300-319
3%
320-339
2%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
1%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500+
1%
200-219 20%
220-239 18%
180-199 15%
240-259 14%
$124,094 Vol.
$124,094 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
2%
140-159
4%
160-179
10%
180-199
15%
200-219
20%
220-239
18%
240-259
14%
260-279
9%
280-299
4%
300-319
3%
320-339
2%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
1%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500+
1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weekly windows show Elon Musk averaging roughly 25–34 posts per day on X, with the September 15–22 period resolving at 220–239 tweets amid steady platform engagement and routine company commentary. Traders have clustered probability around the 180–259 bands because this range aligns with his established baseline when no major Tesla, SpaceX, or xAI milestones, regulatory developments, or political flashpoints intervene. The narrow spread among leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether the coming stretch will stay quiet or encounter a catalyst that pushes daily volume above 35 or below 25. Any verified product launch, earnings-related news, or high-profile exchange during the seven-day window remains the key swing factor that could shift the final tally into an adjacent bracket.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions