**Elon Musk’s recent three-day posting windows on X have clustered in the 40-64 range during moderate-activity stretches, anchoring the 53% implied probability for that bracket in the September 24-26 market.** Traders are pricing in his established baseline cadence of roughly 13-21 posts per day when no major company announcements, platform updates, or external controversies intervene, consistent with resolved shorter windows like the 40-64 outcome for September 17-19. The next tier at 65-89 (32.5%) reflects the possibility of a modest uptick from ongoing AI or Tesla commentary, while sub-40 remains a live but lower-probability scenario tied to quieter periods. With the three-day window closing just before the weekend and no scheduled high-profile events on the immediate horizon, the market consensus favors steady rather than spiked volume.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 53%
65-89 36%
<40 7%
90-114 6%
NEW
$15,143 Vol.
NEW
$15,143 Vol.
Sep 26, 2026
<40
7%
40-64
53%
65-89
36%
90-114
6%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 53%
65-89 36%
<40 7%
90-114 6%
NEW
$15,143 Vol.
NEW
$15,143 Vol.
Sep 26, 2026
<40
$5,949 Vol.
7%
40-64
$983 Vol.
53%
65-89
$2,003 Vol.
36%
90-114
$978 Vol.
6%
115-139
$827 Vol.
1%
140-164
$411 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$435 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$229 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$1,683 Vol.
<1%
240+
$1,645 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 24 12:00 PM ET to September 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Elon Musk’s recent three-day posting windows on X have clustered in the 40-64 range during moderate-activity stretches, anchoring the 53% implied probability for that bracket in the September 24-26 market.** Traders are pricing in his established baseline cadence of roughly 13-21 posts per day when no major company announcements, platform updates, or external controversies intervene, consistent with resolved shorter windows like the 40-64 outcome for September 17-19. The next tier at 65-89 (32.5%) reflects the possibility of a modest uptick from ongoing AI or Tesla commentary, while sub-40 remains a live but lower-probability scenario tied to quieter periods. With the three-day window closing just before the weekend and no scheduled high-profile events on the immediate horizon, the market consensus favors steady rather than spiked volume.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 24 12:00 PM ET to September 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$15,143End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 24 12:00 PM ET to September 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Elon Musk’s recent three-day posting windows on X have clustered in the 40-64 range during moderate-activity stretches, anchoring the 53% implied probability for that bracket in the September 24-26 market.** Traders are pricing in his established baseline cadence of roughly 13-21 posts per day when no major company announcements, platform updates, or external controversies intervene, consistent with resolved shorter windows like the 40-64 outcome for September 17-19. The next tier at 65-89 (32.5%) reflects the possibility of a modest uptick from ongoing AI or Tesla commentary, while sub-40 remains a live but lower-probability scenario tied to quieter periods. With the three-day window closing just before the weekend and no scheduled high-profile events on the immediate horizon, the market consensus favors steady rather than spiked volume.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 24 12:00 PM ET to September 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$15,143End Date
Sep 26, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elon Musk’s recent three-day posting windows on X have clustered in the 40-64 range during moderate-activity stretches, anchoring the 53% implied probability for that bracket in the September 24-26 market.** Traders are pricing in his established baseline cadence of roughly 13-21 posts per day when no major company announcements, platform updates, or external controversies intervene, consistent with resolved shorter windows like the 40-64 outcome for September 17-19. The next tier at 65-89 (32.5%) reflects the possibility of a modest uptick from ongoing AI or Tesla commentary, while sub-40 remains a live but lower-probability scenario tied to quieter periods. With the three-day window closing just before the weekend and no scheduled high-profile events on the immediate horizon, the market consensus favors steady rather than spiked volume.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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