Trader consensus on Elon Musk’s X activity for the August 29–31 window centers on the 40–64 bracket (53.5% implied probability), followed by sub-40 (30.0%). The primary driver is the weekend-heavy stretch—Saturday through Monday—with historical data showing notably lighter posting on Saturdays and Sundays compared to weekdays. Recent three-day settlements frequently land in the 40–64 range during quieter periods, while full-week volumes swing higher amid news cycles or company updates. Musk’s recent cadence has hovered around 30–50 posts daily on average, but trackers confirm sharp slowdowns absent major political commentary, Starship milestones, or viral threads. No high-profile catalysts currently drive elevated volume expectations for this holiday-adjacent window, supporting the market’s tilt toward the lower-to-moderate brackets over the higher tails.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 54%
<40 31%
65-89 14%
90-114 2.8%
NEW
$96,812 Vol.
NEW
$96,812 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<40
31%
40-64
54%
65-89
14%
90-114
3%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 54%
<40 31%
65-89 14%
90-114 2.8%
NEW
$96,812 Vol.
NEW
$96,812 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<40
$15,183 Vol.
31%
40-64
$13,718 Vol.
54%
65-89
$9,400 Vol.
14%
90-114
$11,828 Vol.
3%
115-139
$28,051 Vol.
1%
140-164
$6,089 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$6,570 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$3,888 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$811 Vol.
<1%
240+
$1,274 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 29 12:00 PM ET to August 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Elon Musk’s X activity for the August 29–31 window centers on the 40–64 bracket (53.5% implied probability), followed by sub-40 (30.0%). The primary driver is the weekend-heavy stretch—Saturday through Monday—with historical data showing notably lighter posting on Saturdays and Sundays compared to weekdays. Recent three-day settlements frequently land in the 40–64 range during quieter periods, while full-week volumes swing higher amid news cycles or company updates. Musk’s recent cadence has hovered around 30–50 posts daily on average, but trackers confirm sharp slowdowns absent major political commentary, Starship milestones, or viral threads. No high-profile catalysts currently drive elevated volume expectations for this holiday-adjacent window, supporting the market’s tilt toward the lower-to-moderate brackets over the higher tails.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 29 12:00 PM ET to August 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$96,812End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 29 12:00 PM ET to August 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Elon Musk’s X activity for the August 29–31 window centers on the 40–64 bracket (53.5% implied probability), followed by sub-40 (30.0%). The primary driver is the weekend-heavy stretch—Saturday through Monday—with historical data showing notably lighter posting on Saturdays and Sundays compared to weekdays. Recent three-day settlements frequently land in the 40–64 range during quieter periods, while full-week volumes swing higher amid news cycles or company updates. Musk’s recent cadence has hovered around 30–50 posts daily on average, but trackers confirm sharp slowdowns absent major political commentary, Starship milestones, or viral threads. No high-profile catalysts currently drive elevated volume expectations for this holiday-adjacent window, supporting the market’s tilt toward the lower-to-moderate brackets over the higher tails.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 29 12:00 PM ET to August 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$96,812End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Elon Musk’s X activity for the August 29–31 window centers on the 40–64 bracket (53.5% implied probability), followed by sub-40 (30.0%). The primary driver is the weekend-heavy stretch—Saturday through Monday—with historical data showing notably lighter posting on Saturdays and Sundays compared to weekdays. Recent three-day settlements frequently land in the 40–64 range during quieter periods, while full-week volumes swing higher amid news cycles or company updates. Musk’s recent cadence has hovered around 30–50 posts daily on average, but trackers confirm sharp slowdowns absent major political commentary, Starship milestones, or viral threads. No high-profile catalysts currently drive elevated volume expectations for this holiday-adjacent window, supporting the market’s tilt toward the lower-to-moderate brackets over the higher tails.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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