The 40-64 tweet bracket commands 96% implied probability because Elon Musk’s posting pace over the Aug 27-29 window has remained moderate and consistent with recent quiet periods, averaging roughly 13-21 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts daily. Traders have priced this outcome after observing comparable three-day stretches, including the Aug 24-26 market that settled in the same range, settle without major SpaceX launches, earnings, or political flashpoints to drive engagement. Weekend slowdowns further anchor expectations, as historical data shows activity often dips absent breaking industry or platform news. An upset into the 65-89 band or higher would require an unexpected catalyst such as a high-profile announcement or controversy that triggers sustained commentary and reposts before the Aug 29 noon ET cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedElon Musk # tweets August 27 - August 29, 2026?
Elon Musk # tweets August 27 - August 29, 2026?
40-64 96.0%
65-89 4.0%
90-114 <1%
115-139 <1%
$464,383 Vol.
$464,383 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
40-64
96%
65-89
4%
90-114
<1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 96.0%
65-89 4.0%
90-114 <1%
115-139 <1%
$464,383 Vol.
$464,383 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
40-64
$107,243 Vol.
96%
65-89
$109,293 Vol.
4%
90-114
$66,338 Vol.
<1%
115-139
$41,956 Vol.
<1%
140-164
$31,446 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$8,175 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$7,211 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$1,879 Vol.
<1%
240+
$4,384 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 27 12:00 PM ET to August 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.The 40-64 tweet bracket commands 96% implied probability because Elon Musk’s posting pace over the Aug 27-29 window has remained moderate and consistent with recent quiet periods, averaging roughly 13-21 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts daily. Traders have priced this outcome after observing comparable three-day stretches, including the Aug 24-26 market that settled in the same range, settle without major SpaceX launches, earnings, or political flashpoints to drive engagement. Weekend slowdowns further anchor expectations, as historical data shows activity often dips absent breaking industry or platform news. An upset into the 65-89 band or higher would require an unexpected catalyst such as a high-profile announcement or controversy that triggers sustained commentary and reposts before the Aug 29 noon ET cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 27 12:00 PM ET to August 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$464,383End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 27 12:00 PM ET to August 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.The 40-64 tweet bracket commands 96% implied probability because Elon Musk’s posting pace over the Aug 27-29 window has remained moderate and consistent with recent quiet periods, averaging roughly 13-21 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts daily. Traders have priced this outcome after observing comparable three-day stretches, including the Aug 24-26 market that settled in the same range, settle without major SpaceX launches, earnings, or political flashpoints to drive engagement. Weekend slowdowns further anchor expectations, as historical data shows activity often dips absent breaking industry or platform news. An upset into the 65-89 band or higher would require an unexpected catalyst such as a high-profile announcement or controversy that triggers sustained commentary and reposts before the Aug 29 noon ET cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 27 12:00 PM ET to August 29, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$464,383End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 40-64 tweet bracket commands 96% implied probability because Elon Musk’s posting pace over the Aug 27-29 window has remained moderate and consistent with recent quiet periods, averaging roughly 13-21 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts daily. Traders have priced this outcome after observing comparable three-day stretches, including the Aug 24-26 market that settled in the same range, settle without major SpaceX launches, earnings, or political flashpoints to drive engagement. Weekend slowdowns further anchor expectations, as historical data shows activity often dips absent breaking industry or platform news. An upset into the 65-89 band or higher would require an unexpected catalyst such as a high-profile announcement or controversy that triggers sustained commentary and reposts before the Aug 29 noon ET cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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