Comprehensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and complementary surveys such as ATLAS and Pan-STARRS has identified no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton TNT equivalent energy through the end of 2026. Continuous radar, optical, and infrared tracking rules out bodies in the 50–100 meter range that could produce this yield, aligning with the historical impact frequency of roughly once every several hundred to a few thousand years. Trader consensus at 98.7% for “No” reflects this verified absence of risk plus the low likelihood of an undetected long-period comet arriving before year-end. The only plausible variables that could shift resolution are a last-minute discovery of an extremely faint object or a significant orbit revision for a known asteroid, though current observational density makes either scenario improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1% chance
$116,329 Vol.
$116,329 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
1% chance
$116,329 Vol.
$116,329 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Comprehensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and complementary surveys such as ATLAS and Pan-STARRS has identified no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton TNT equivalent energy through the end of 2026. Continuous radar, optical, and infrared tracking rules out bodies in the 50–100 meter range that could produce this yield, aligning with the historical impact frequency of roughly once every several hundred to a few thousand years. Trader consensus at 98.7% for “No” reflects this verified absence of risk plus the low likelihood of an undetected long-period comet arriving before year-end. The only plausible variables that could shift resolution are a last-minute discovery of an extremely faint object or a significant orbit revision for a known asteroid, though current observational density makes either scenario improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$116,329End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Comprehensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and complementary surveys such as ATLAS and Pan-STARRS has identified no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton TNT equivalent energy through the end of 2026. Continuous radar, optical, and infrared tracking rules out bodies in the 50–100 meter range that could produce this yield, aligning with the historical impact frequency of roughly once every several hundred to a few thousand years. Trader consensus at 98.7% for “No” reflects this verified absence of risk plus the low likelihood of an undetected long-period comet arriving before year-end. The only plausible variables that could shift resolution are a last-minute discovery of an extremely faint object or a significant orbit revision for a known asteroid, though current observational density makes either scenario improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$116,329End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Comprehensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and complementary surveys such as ATLAS and Pan-STARRS has identified no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton TNT equivalent energy through the end of 2026. Continuous radar, optical, and infrared tracking rules out bodies in the 50–100 meter range that could produce this yield, aligning with the historical impact frequency of roughly once every several hundred to a few thousand years. Trader consensus at 98.7% for “No” reflects this verified absence of risk plus the low likelihood of an undetected long-period comet arriving before year-end. The only plausible variables that could shift resolution are a last-minute discovery of an extremely faint object or a significant orbit revision for a known asteroid, though current observational density makes either scenario improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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