The United Party for National Development (UPND) holds a commanding position in the National Assembly race due to its status as the incumbent ruling party with a broad 15-party alliance, structural advantages including 15 unopposed parliamentary candidates, and the opposition's failure to contest nearly one-third of seats following the 2025 death of former President Edgar Lungu and subsequent fragmentation. These factors, combined with expanded legislative seats from recent constitutional changes and limited unified challenges ahead of the August 13, 2026 vote, have shaped trader consensus reflected in the elevated implied probability. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include disputes during vote counting, unusually high independent candidate performance, or unexpected turnout shifts in contested constituencies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUPND 97.0%
NRPUP 2.8%
CF <1%
SP <1%
$13,315 Vol.
$13,315 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
UPND
97%
NRPUP
3%
CF
1%
SP
<1%
UPND 97.0%
NRPUP 2.8%
CF <1%
SP <1%
$13,315 Vol.
$13,315 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
UPND
$8,973 Vol.
97%
NRPUP
$1,425 Vol.
3%
CF
$1,630 Vol.
1%
SP
$1,287 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of Zambia are scheduled to take place on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the National Assembly of Zambia serving as a result of this election, including appointed members and those elected by proportional representation.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. A member appointed by the President will count towards the party of their personal affiliation if such affiliation is clear. If their affiliation is ambiguous or unclear, they will count towards the party of the President.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Zambian government.The United Party for National Development (UPND) holds a commanding position in the National Assembly race due to its status as the incumbent ruling party with a broad 15-party alliance, structural advantages including 15 unopposed parliamentary candidates, and the opposition's failure to contest nearly one-third of seats following the 2025 death of former President Edgar Lungu and subsequent fragmentation. These factors, combined with expanded legislative seats from recent constitutional changes and limited unified challenges ahead of the August 13, 2026 vote, have shaped trader consensus reflected in the elevated implied probability. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include disputes during vote counting, unusually high independent candidate performance, or unexpected turnout shifts in contested constituencies.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of Zambia are scheduled to take place on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the National Assembly of Zambia serving as a result of this election, including appointed members and those elected by proportional representation.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. A member appointed by the President will count towards the party of their personal affiliation if such affiliation is clear. If their affiliation is ambiguous or unclear, they will count towards the party of the President.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Zambian government.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the National Assembly of Zambia serving as a result of this election, including appointed members and those elected by proportional representation.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. A member appointed by the President will count towards the party of their personal affiliation if such affiliation is clear. If their affiliation is ambiguous or unclear, they will count towards the party of the President.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Zambian government.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 11:46 AM ET
Volume
$13,315End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of Zambia are scheduled to take place on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the National Assembly of Zambia serving as a result of this election, including appointed members and those elected by proportional representation.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. A member appointed by the President will count towards the party of their personal affiliation if such affiliation is clear. If their affiliation is ambiguous or unclear, they will count towards the party of the President.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Zambian government.The United Party for National Development (UPND) holds a commanding position in the National Assembly race due to its status as the incumbent ruling party with a broad 15-party alliance, structural advantages including 15 unopposed parliamentary candidates, and the opposition's failure to contest nearly one-third of seats following the 2025 death of former President Edgar Lungu and subsequent fragmentation. These factors, combined with expanded legislative seats from recent constitutional changes and limited unified challenges ahead of the August 13, 2026 vote, have shaped trader consensus reflected in the elevated implied probability. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include disputes during vote counting, unusually high independent candidate performance, or unexpected turnout shifts in contested constituencies.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of Zambia are scheduled to take place on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the National Assembly of Zambia serving as a result of this election, including appointed members and those elected by proportional representation.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. A member appointed by the President will count towards the party of their personal affiliation if such affiliation is clear. If their affiliation is ambiguous or unclear, they will count towards the party of the President.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Zambian government.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the National Assembly of Zambia serving as a result of this election, including appointed members and those elected by proportional representation.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. A member appointed by the President will count towards the party of their personal affiliation if such affiliation is clear. If their affiliation is ambiguous or unclear, they will count towards the party of the President.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Zambian government.
Volume
$13,315End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The United Party for National Development (UPND) holds a commanding position in the National Assembly race due to its status as the incumbent ruling party with a broad 15-party alliance, structural advantages including 15 unopposed parliamentary candidates, and the opposition's failure to contest nearly one-third of seats following the 2025 death of former President Edgar Lungu and subsequent fragmentation. These factors, combined with expanded legislative seats from recent constitutional changes and limited unified challenges ahead of the August 13, 2026 vote, have shaped trader consensus reflected in the elevated implied probability. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include disputes during vote counting, unusually high independent candidate performance, or unexpected turnout shifts in contested constituencies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions