NRPUP holds a commanding 97.5% implied probability for second place in Zambia’s National Assembly election because it emerged as the primary unified opposition vehicle ahead of the August 13 vote. The party, fielding 155 parliamentary candidates under the Tonse-Pamodzi Alliance banner with Brian Mundubile as its presidential nominee, consolidated support from former Patriotic Front strongholds and capitalized on cost-of-living concerns. In contrast, the ruling UPND contested all 226 seats and secured unopposed victories in multiple constituencies, positioning it for a clear majority while leaving NRPUP as the clearest alternative. Fragmented smaller parties and independents lack comparable nationwide reach or recent polling momentum. Late counting suspensions and parallel tabulation claims could still introduce volatility, but structural candidate distribution and alliance consolidation continue to anchor trader expectations around NRPUP finishing behind the incumbent party.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNRPUP 97.5%
UPND 1.8%
CF <1%
SP <1%
$3,207 Vol.
$3,207 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
NRPUP
98%
UPND
2%
CF
<1%
SP
<1%
NRPUP 97.5%
UPND 1.8%
CF <1%
SP <1%
$3,207 Vol.
$3,207 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
NRPUP
$1,636 Vol.
98%
UPND
$494 Vol.
2%
CF
$765 Vol.
<1%
SP
$313 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of Zambia are scheduled to take place on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-highest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the National Assembly of Zambia serving as a result of this election, including appointed members and those elected by proportional representation.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party’s candidates, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. A member appointed by the President will count towards the party of their personal affiliation if such affiliation is clear. If their affiliation is ambiguous or unclear, they will count towards the party of the President.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Zambian government.NRPUP holds a commanding 97.5% implied probability for second place in Zambia’s National Assembly election because it emerged as the primary unified opposition vehicle ahead of the August 13 vote. The party, fielding 155 parliamentary candidates under the Tonse-Pamodzi Alliance banner with Brian Mundubile as its presidential nominee, consolidated support from former Patriotic Front strongholds and capitalized on cost-of-living concerns. In contrast, the ruling UPND contested all 226 seats and secured unopposed victories in multiple constituencies, positioning it for a clear majority while leaving NRPUP as the clearest alternative. Fragmented smaller parties and independents lack comparable nationwide reach or recent polling momentum. Late counting suspensions and parallel tabulation claims could still introduce volatility, but structural candidate distribution and alliance consolidation continue to anchor trader expectations around NRPUP finishing behind the incumbent party.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of Zambia are scheduled to take place on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-highest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the National Assembly of Zambia serving as a result of this election, including appointed members and those elected by proportional representation.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party’s candidates, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. A member appointed by the President will count towards the party of their personal affiliation if such affiliation is clear. If their affiliation is ambiguous or unclear, they will count towards the party of the President.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Zambian government.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-highest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the National Assembly of Zambia serving as a result of this election, including appointed members and those elected by proportional representation.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party’s candidates, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. A member appointed by the President will count towards the party of their personal affiliation if such affiliation is clear. If their affiliation is ambiguous or unclear, they will count towards the party of the President.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Zambian government.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 11:47 AM ET
Volume
$3,207End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of Zambia are scheduled to take place on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-highest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the National Assembly of Zambia serving as a result of this election, including appointed members and those elected by proportional representation.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party’s candidates, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. A member appointed by the President will count towards the party of their personal affiliation if such affiliation is clear. If their affiliation is ambiguous or unclear, they will count towards the party of the President.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Zambian government.NRPUP holds a commanding 97.5% implied probability for second place in Zambia’s National Assembly election because it emerged as the primary unified opposition vehicle ahead of the August 13 vote. The party, fielding 155 parliamentary candidates under the Tonse-Pamodzi Alliance banner with Brian Mundubile as its presidential nominee, consolidated support from former Patriotic Front strongholds and capitalized on cost-of-living concerns. In contrast, the ruling UPND contested all 226 seats and secured unopposed victories in multiple constituencies, positioning it for a clear majority while leaving NRPUP as the clearest alternative. Fragmented smaller parties and independents lack comparable nationwide reach or recent polling momentum. Late counting suspensions and parallel tabulation claims could still introduce volatility, but structural candidate distribution and alliance consolidation continue to anchor trader expectations around NRPUP finishing behind the incumbent party.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of Zambia are scheduled to take place on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-highest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the National Assembly of Zambia serving as a result of this election, including appointed members and those elected by proportional representation.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party’s candidates, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. A member appointed by the President will count towards the party of their personal affiliation if such affiliation is clear. If their affiliation is ambiguous or unclear, they will count towards the party of the President.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Zambian government.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-highest number of seats in the National Assembly of Zambia as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the National Assembly of Zambia serving as a result of this election, including appointed members and those elected by proportional representation.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party’s candidates, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. A member appointed by the President will count towards the party of their personal affiliation if such affiliation is clear. If their affiliation is ambiguous or unclear, they will count towards the party of the President.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Zambian government.
Volume
$3,207End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...NRPUP holds a commanding 97.5% implied probability for second place in Zambia’s National Assembly election because it emerged as the primary unified opposition vehicle ahead of the August 13 vote. The party, fielding 155 parliamentary candidates under the Tonse-Pamodzi Alliance banner with Brian Mundubile as its presidential nominee, consolidated support from former Patriotic Front strongholds and capitalized on cost-of-living concerns. In contrast, the ruling UPND contested all 226 seats and secured unopposed victories in multiple constituencies, positioning it for a clear majority while leaving NRPUP as the clearest alternative. Fragmented smaller parties and independents lack comparable nationwide reach or recent polling momentum. Late counting suspensions and parallel tabulation claims could still introduce volatility, but structural candidate distribution and alliance consolidation continue to anchor trader expectations around NRPUP finishing behind the incumbent party.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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