Democratic prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the primary driver behind the 62% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Multiple resolutions targeting President Trump have already been introduced and tabled under the current Republican majority, including efforts citing foreign policy actions and other alleged high crimes. Democratic leaders have signaled that investigations into administration matters would take priority if the chamber flips, with impeachment remaining a conditional follow-on option rather than an immediate step. Republicans have highlighted this risk in campaign messaging, while traders price in the historical pattern of divided government producing House impeachment proceedings even without realistic Senate conviction prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated62% chance
$89,034 Vol.
$89,034 Vol.
Jan 20, 2029
62% chance
$89,034 Vol.
$89,034 Vol.
Jan 20, 2029
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democratic prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the primary driver behind the 62% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Multiple resolutions targeting President Trump have already been introduced and tabled under the current Republican majority, including efforts citing foreign policy actions and other alleged high crimes. Democratic leaders have signaled that investigations into administration matters would take priority if the chamber flips, with impeachment remaining a conditional follow-on option rather than an immediate step. Republicans have highlighted this risk in campaign messaging, while traders price in the historical pattern of divided government producing House impeachment proceedings even without realistic Senate conviction prospects.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$89,034End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democratic prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the primary driver behind the 62% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Multiple resolutions targeting President Trump have already been introduced and tabled under the current Republican majority, including efforts citing foreign policy actions and other alleged high crimes. Democratic leaders have signaled that investigations into administration matters would take priority if the chamber flips, with impeachment remaining a conditional follow-on option rather than an immediate step. Republicans have highlighted this risk in campaign messaging, while traders price in the historical pattern of divided government producing House impeachment proceedings even without realistic Senate conviction prospects.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$89,034End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democratic prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the primary driver behind the 62% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Multiple resolutions targeting President Trump have already been introduced and tabled under the current Republican majority, including efforts citing foreign policy actions and other alleged high crimes. Democratic leaders have signaled that investigations into administration matters would take priority if the chamber flips, with impeachment remaining a conditional follow-on option rather than an immediate step. Republicans have highlighted this risk in campaign messaging, while traders price in the historical pattern of divided government producing House impeachment proceedings even without realistic Senate conviction prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions