Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s August 9 rejection of the U.S.-backed 15-point Gaza plan has reinforced trader focus on conditions for any major new ground operation. Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw until Hamas undergoes genuine disarmament, following Hamas’s reported consent to elements of a disarmament framework earlier in August. Ongoing airstrikes and localized clashes continue amid Israeli control of roughly 70 percent of the territory and defense ministry statements signaling indefinite presence in security zones. Regional condemnations of strikes on infrastructure and the absence of a finalized ceasefire or withdrawal timeline keep attention on whether diplomatic momentum or security assessments could prompt escalated ground maneuvers before any near-term deadline. Scheduled follow-on talks and U.S. pressure on implementation remain key variables that could alter positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$750,182 Vol.
Oct 31, 2025
December 31
15%
$750,182 Vol.
December 31
$100,618 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s August 9 rejection of the U.S.-backed 15-point Gaza plan has reinforced trader focus on conditions for any major new ground operation. Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw until Hamas undergoes genuine disarmament, following Hamas’s reported consent to elements of a disarmament framework earlier in August. Ongoing airstrikes and localized clashes continue amid Israeli control of roughly 70 percent of the territory and defense ministry statements signaling indefinite presence in security zones. Regional condemnations of strikes on infrastructure and the absence of a finalized ceasefire or withdrawal timeline keep attention on whether diplomatic momentum or security assessments could prompt escalated ground maneuvers before any near-term deadline. Scheduled follow-on talks and U.S. pressure on implementation remain key variables that could alter positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Volume
$750,182End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s August 9 rejection of the U.S.-backed 15-point Gaza plan has reinforced trader focus on conditions for any major new ground operation. Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw until Hamas undergoes genuine disarmament, following Hamas’s reported consent to elements of a disarmament framework earlier in August. Ongoing airstrikes and localized clashes continue amid Israeli control of roughly 70 percent of the territory and defense ministry statements signaling indefinite presence in security zones. Regional condemnations of strikes on infrastructure and the absence of a finalized ceasefire or withdrawal timeline keep attention on whether diplomatic momentum or security assessments could prompt escalated ground maneuvers before any near-term deadline. Scheduled follow-on talks and U.S. pressure on implementation remain key variables that could alter positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$750,182End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s August 9 rejection of the U.S.-backed 15-point Gaza plan has reinforced trader focus on conditions for any major new ground operation. Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw until Hamas undergoes genuine disarmament, following Hamas’s reported consent to elements of a disarmament framework earlier in August. Ongoing airstrikes and localized clashes continue amid Israeli control of roughly 70 percent of the territory and defense ministry statements signaling indefinite presence in security zones. Regional condemnations of strikes on infrastructure and the absence of a finalized ceasefire or withdrawal timeline keep attention on whether diplomatic momentum or security assessments could prompt escalated ground maneuvers before any near-term deadline. Scheduled follow-on talks and U.S. pressure on implementation remain key variables that could alter positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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