Recent incidents underscore Anthropic’s scaling pressures on Claude infrastructure, with multiple resolved outages in late August including a three-hour elevated-error event across Opus 5, Mythos 5, Fable 5 and the API on August 24, plus an upstream-provider disruption hitting Claude Code and Cowork on August 28. These align with 29 major incidents over the prior 90 days, often tied to login failures, model overload (529 errors), and demand outpacing capacity. Traders weigh this recurring pattern of short-to-medium disruptions against Anthropic’s ongoing mitigations and 99%+ uptime targets, creating tight consensus around 8–13 affected days in September while leaving room for variability from new model launches or cloud dependencies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8-10 37%
11-13 33%
5-7 21%
14+ 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<5
4%
5-7
21%
8-10
37%
11-13
33%
14+
7%
8-10 37%
11-13 33%
5-7 21%
14+ 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<5
$179 Vol.
4%
5-7
$5 Vol.
21%
8-10
$105 Vol.
37%
11-13
$213 Vol.
33%
14+
$93 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent incidents underscore Anthropic’s scaling pressures on Claude infrastructure, with multiple resolved outages in late August including a three-hour elevated-error event across Opus 5, Mythos 5, Fable 5 and the API on August 24, plus an upstream-provider disruption hitting Claude Code and Cowork on August 28. These align with 29 major incidents over the prior 90 days, often tied to login failures, model overload (529 errors), and demand outpacing capacity. Traders weigh this recurring pattern of short-to-medium disruptions against Anthropic’s ongoing mitigations and 99%+ uptime targets, creating tight consensus around 8–13 affected days in September while leaving room for variability from new model launches or cloud dependencies.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volume
$596End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent incidents underscore Anthropic’s scaling pressures on Claude infrastructure, with multiple resolved outages in late August including a three-hour elevated-error event across Opus 5, Mythos 5, Fable 5 and the API on August 24, plus an upstream-provider disruption hitting Claude Code and Cowork on August 28. These align with 29 major incidents over the prior 90 days, often tied to login failures, model overload (529 errors), and demand outpacing capacity. Traders weigh this recurring pattern of short-to-medium disruptions against Anthropic’s ongoing mitigations and 99%+ uptime targets, creating tight consensus around 8–13 affected days in September while leaving room for variability from new model launches or cloud dependencies.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$596End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent incidents underscore Anthropic’s scaling pressures on Claude infrastructure, with multiple resolved outages in late August including a three-hour elevated-error event across Opus 5, Mythos 5, Fable 5 and the API on August 24, plus an upstream-provider disruption hitting Claude Code and Cowork on August 28. These align with 29 major incidents over the prior 90 days, often tied to login failures, model overload (529 errors), and demand outpacing capacity. Traders weigh this recurring pattern of short-to-medium disruptions against Anthropic’s ongoing mitigations and 99%+ uptime targets, creating tight consensus around 8–13 affected days in September while leaving room for variability from new model launches or cloud dependencies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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