Google’s repeated delays of its flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro large language model—originally promised for June after the May 2026 I/O conference and then missed again in July—drive the 71.5% market-implied odds of no release by September 30. As of mid-August, the model remains in partner testing with no public API listing or firm timeline, while lighter variants like Gemini 3.7 Flash shipped on August 13 and training has begun on Gemini 4. Traders appear to price in extended internal refinement to meet performance benchmarks, consistent with prior slippage patterns. No major catalysts such as earnings commentary or developer events are scheduled before month-end that would likely shift the consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo release by September 30 72%
On or prior to September 1 9.1%
September 20 9%
September 11 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
On or prior to September 1
9%
September 2
2%
September 3
4%
September 4
3%
September 5
3%
September 6
1%
September 7
5%
September 8
1%
September 9
1%
September 10
1%
September 11
8%
September 12
4%
September 13
1%
September 14
4%
September 15
8%
September 16
4%
September 17
3%
September 18
1%
September 19
3%
September 20
9%
September 21
1%
September 22
8%
September 23
4%
September 24
8%
September 25
8%
September 26
1%
September 27
3%
September 28
4%
September 29
2%
September 30
3%
No release by September 30
72%
No release by September 30 72%
On or prior to September 1 9.1%
September 20 9%
September 11 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
On or prior to September 1
$291 Vol.
9%
September 2
$108 Vol.
2%
September 3
$98 Vol.
4%
September 4
$98 Vol.
3%
September 5
$98 Vol.
3%
September 6
$83 Vol.
1%
September 7
$98 Vol.
5%
September 8
$90 Vol.
1%
September 9
$165 Vol.
1%
September 10
$165 Vol.
1%
September 11
$98 Vol.
8%
September 12
$98 Vol.
4%
September 13
$165 Vol.
1%
September 14
$58 Vol.
4%
September 15
$98 Vol.
8%
September 16
$98 Vol.
4%
September 17
$98 Vol.
3%
September 18
$101 Vol.
1%
September 19
$98 Vol.
3%
September 20
$98 Vol.
9%
September 21
$165 Vol.
1%
September 22
$98 Vol.
8%
September 23
$98 Vol.
4%
September 24
$98 Vol.
8%
September 25
$98 Vol.
8%
September 26
$163 Vol.
1%
September 27
$98 Vol.
3%
September 28
$89 Vol.
4%
September 29
$168 Vol.
2%
September 30
$177 Vol.
3%
No release by September 30
$3,642 Vol.
72%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays of its flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro large language model—originally promised for June after the May 2026 I/O conference and then missed again in July—drive the 71.5% market-implied odds of no release by September 30. As of mid-August, the model remains in partner testing with no public API listing or firm timeline, while lighter variants like Gemini 3.7 Flash shipped on August 13 and training has begun on Gemini 4. Traders appear to price in extended internal refinement to meet performance benchmarks, consistent with prior slippage patterns. No major catalysts such as earnings commentary or developer events are scheduled before month-end that would likely shift the consensus.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$7,202End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays of its flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro large language model—originally promised for June after the May 2026 I/O conference and then missed again in July—drive the 71.5% market-implied odds of no release by September 30. As of mid-August, the model remains in partner testing with no public API listing or firm timeline, while lighter variants like Gemini 3.7 Flash shipped on August 13 and training has begun on Gemini 4. Traders appear to price in extended internal refinement to meet performance benchmarks, consistent with prior slippage patterns. No major catalysts such as earnings commentary or developer events are scheduled before month-end that would likely shift the consensus.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,202End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google’s repeated delays of its flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro large language model—originally promised for June after the May 2026 I/O conference and then missed again in July—drive the 71.5% market-implied odds of no release by September 30. As of mid-August, the model remains in partner testing with no public API listing or firm timeline, while lighter variants like Gemini 3.7 Flash shipped on August 13 and training has begun on Gemini 4. Traders appear to price in extended internal refinement to meet performance benchmarks, consistent with prior slippage patterns. No major catalysts such as earnings commentary or developer events are scheduled before month-end that would likely shift the consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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