Skip to main content
icon for Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by...?
Tech·AI

Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by...?

icon for Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by...?
Tech·AI

Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by...?

Sep 30

Sep 30

NEW
Sep 15, 2026
Polymarket

$444 Vol.

Polymarket

September 15

$86 Vol.

50%

September 30

$358 Vol.

51%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution. This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved. The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.Rapid recent AI solutions on Epoch AI’s FrontierMath: Open Problems benchmark drive strong trader consensus for near-term resolution. As of August 2026, Epoch has already classified three open research problems as solved by AI—including a Ramsey-style hypergraph problem in March and the Hadamard matrix of order 668 on August 12—using models such as GPT-5.4 Pro, GPT-5.5 Pro, and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5. Leading systems now post 68–83% on FrontierMath v2 Tier 4, reflecting gains from scaled reasoning, tool use, and specialized training. With the benchmark expanded to 50 problems and ongoing model releases expected through fall, market-implied odds reflect expectations of at least one additional Epoch-recognized solution before year-end, tempered by the high bar for AI-attributed core contributions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.

This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.

The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Volume
$444
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution. This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved. The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution. This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved. The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.Rapid recent AI solutions on Epoch AI’s FrontierMath: Open Problems benchmark drive strong trader consensus for near-term resolution. As of August 2026, Epoch has already classified three open research problems as solved by AI—including a Ramsey-style hypergraph problem in March and the Hadamard matrix of order 668 on August 12—using models such as GPT-5.4 Pro, GPT-5.5 Pro, and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5. Leading systems now post 68–83% on FrontierMath v2 Tier 4, reflecting gains from scaled reasoning, tool use, and specialized training. With the benchmark expanded to 50 problems and ongoing model releases expected through fall, market-implied odds reflect expectations of at least one additional Epoch-recognized solution before year-end, tempered by the high bar for AI-attributed core contributions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.

This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.

The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Volume
$444
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution. This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved. The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.

Related

icon for AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

90%
icon for Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

65%
icon for ChatGPT Outage by September 30, 2026?

ChatGPT Outage by September 30, 2026?

86%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "September 30" at 51%, followed by "September 15" at 50%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by...?" is "September 30" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 15" at 50%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.