Traders assign a 99.1% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, primarily because the remaining six-week window is too brief for the large-scale amphibious preparations, troop concentrations, and logistics required for such an operation to occur without prior public indicators. No major military mobilizations, cross-strait exercises, or diplomatic ruptures in the past month have signaled imminent action, while economic interdependence, U.S. security commitments, and regional alliances continue to raise the costs of direct conflict. Gray-zone tactics remain the dominant pattern rather than outright assault. Realistic shifts could still arise from an unforeseen crisis, miscalculation during exercises, or sudden leadership decisions, though these remain low-probability events within the tight resolution timeline.