Traders assign a 93.2% probability to no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027 because Beijing has maintained calibrated coercion without crossing into open conflict. PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ fell sharply in 2026, averaging under 200 sorties per month early in the year and 190 in July, well below prior peaks. China conducted live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait in July following statements by President William Lai Ching-te and larger blockade simulations in December 2025, yet these remained limited exercises. Beijing has redirected messaging toward Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election and opposition Kuomintang channels while Taiwan’s August Han Kuang drills emphasize defensive resilience and asymmetric capabilities. The pattern of contained signaling and longer-term political focus supports the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$3,212,788 Vol.
$3,212,788 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$3,212,788 Vol.
$3,212,788 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93.2% probability to no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027 because Beijing has maintained calibrated coercion without crossing into open conflict. PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ fell sharply in 2026, averaging under 200 sorties per month early in the year and 190 in July, well below prior peaks. China conducted live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait in July following statements by President William Lai Ching-te and larger blockade simulations in December 2025, yet these remained limited exercises. Beijing has redirected messaging toward Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election and opposition Kuomintang channels while Taiwan’s August Han Kuang drills emphasize defensive resilience and asymmetric capabilities. The pattern of contained signaling and longer-term political focus supports the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$3,212,788End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93.2% probability to no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027 because Beijing has maintained calibrated coercion without crossing into open conflict. PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ fell sharply in 2026, averaging under 200 sorties per month early in the year and 190 in July, well below prior peaks. China conducted live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait in July following statements by President William Lai Ching-te and larger blockade simulations in December 2025, yet these remained limited exercises. Beijing has redirected messaging toward Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election and opposition Kuomintang channels while Taiwan’s August Han Kuang drills emphasize defensive resilience and asymmetric capabilities. The pattern of contained signaling and longer-term political focus supports the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,212,788End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 93.2% probability to no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027 because Beijing has maintained calibrated coercion without crossing into open conflict. PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ fell sharply in 2026, averaging under 200 sorties per month early in the year and 190 in July, well below prior peaks. China conducted live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait in July following statements by President William Lai Ching-te and larger blockade simulations in December 2025, yet these remained limited exercises. Beijing has redirected messaging toward Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election and opposition Kuomintang channels while Taiwan’s August Han Kuang drills emphasize defensive resilience and asymmetric capabilities. The pattern of contained signaling and longer-term political focus supports the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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